Prepare for Trouble
A box on Cases.gg (classic), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Cases.gg's own item price.
Price
$619.65
Advertised RTP
89.50%
EV $554.58 from 15 items
Observed RTP, 30d
85.05%
42 openings, odds method
Variance
41.3×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 50
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
88.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Small sample. 42 openings and 0.8 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items and odds15 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 42 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Here Comes Team Rocket! (XY-P 278) PSA 10other | 1 in 500 | $69.6K | 25.1% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| Team Rocket Booster Boxother | 1 in 333 | $45K | 24.3% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| EX Team Rocket Returns Boosterother | 1 in 67 | $3,000 | 8.1% | 4 | 0.6 | — |
| Team Rocket's Meowth (UNP) NMother | 1 in 67 | $2,778 | 7.5% | 1 | 0.6 | — |
| Movie Commemoration Random Pack Boosterother | 1 in 67 | $1,752 | 4.7% | 0 | 0.6 | — |
| ADV Expansion Pack Boosterother | 1 in 50 | $1,440 | 5.2% | 2 | 0.8 | — |
| 2000 Pokemon Base 2 Foil Pack Pidgeot PSA 9 MINTother | 1 in 50 | $1,100 | 4.0% | 0 | 0.8 | — |
| POKEMON TCG: SCARLET AND VIOLET: PALDEAN FATES: ELITE TRAINER BOXother | 1 in 33 | $740 | 4.0% | 2 | 1.3 | 1.59× |
| Darkness Ablaze Booster Boxother | 1 in 33 | $600 | 3.2% | 0 | 1.3 | 0.00× |
| Base Set 2 Boosterother | 1 in 20 | $445 | 4.0% | 2 | 2.1 | 0.95× |
| Scarlet & Violet Booster Boxother | 1 in 20 | $245 | 2.2% | 4 | 2.1 | 1.90× |
| POKEMON TCG: SCARLET AND VIOLET SHROUDED FABLE ELITE TRAINER BOXother | 1 in 20 | $190 | 1.7% | 0 | 2.1 | 0.00× |
| Obsidian Flames Booster Boxother | 10.0% | $85.00 | 1.5% | 3 | 4.2 | 0.71× |
| Paradox Rift Booster Boxother | 15.0% | $61.00 | 1.6% | 3 | 6.3 | 0.48× |
| Stellar Crown Elite Trainer Boxother | 45.0% | $32.79 | 2.7% | 21 | 18.9 | 1.11× |
Values are Cases.gg's own item prices for physical goods; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
cases-gg:api/cases/details, 11 Nov, 14:54 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 89.50%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $620 | 89.50% | 15 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedother 100.0%best hit $3,000 (4.84x)