PSA or Nay

A box on Cases.gg (classic), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Cases.gg's own item price.

Price

$516.25

Advertised RTP

89.50%

EV $462.04 from 18 items

Observed RTP, 30d

42.85%

94 openings, odds method

Variance

15.2×

of price², per opening

Tail share

1 in 40

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

95.0%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

6 openings · below min

7 days

64 openings · below min

30 days

94 openings · below min

since tracking started

94 openings · below min

-0.5%164.5%329.5%

Small sample. 94 openings and 2.3 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	6	17.28%±311.8	—	odds
7d	64	31.40%±95.5	—	odds
30d	94	42.85%±78.8	—	odds
All	94	42.85%±78.8	—	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items and odds18 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 94 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
Evolving Skies 6 Booster Box Casecontainer	1 in 120	$20K	35.9%	0	0.8	—
Limited Collection Master Battle Setother	1 in 120	$7,700	13.8%	0	0.8	—
2001 Pokemon Neo Discovery 1st Edition Holo Tyranitar #12 PSA 10 GEM MINTother	1 in 120	$5,500	9.9%	1	0.8	—
2004 Pokemon EX Fire Red Leaf Green Holo Blastoise Ex #104 PSA 10 GEM MINTother	1 in 120	$2,750	4.9%	0	0.8	—
Bearbrick Pokemon Pikachu Flocky 1000%other	1 in 118	$2,520	4.6%	0	0.8	—
1999 Pokemon Base Set Shadowless 1st Edition Bulbasaur #44 PSA 10 GEM MINTother	1 in 120	$2,370	4.3%	1	0.8	—
Pokémon TCG 25th Anniversary Celebrations - Elite Trainer Boxother	1 in 13	$445	7.2%	6	7.1	0.85×
Stormfront Boosterother	1 in 13	$345	5.6%	10	7.1	1.42×
100 Thieves x Pokémon Pikachu Core T-shirtother	1 in 13	$280	4.5%	7	7.1	0.99×
Pikachu 1999 Pokemon TCG Jungle 1st Edition #60 (PSA 9)other	1 in 13	$192	3.1%	11	7.1	1.56×
25th Anniversary Collection Booster Boxother	1 in 13	$88.90	1.4%	12	7.1	1.70×
Obsidian Flames Booster Boxother	1 in 13	$85.00	1.4%	6	7.1	0.85×
Squishmallow Pokemon 20" Gengar Plushother	1 in 13	$72.00	1.2%	4	7.1	0.57×
2022 Pokemon Sword & Shield Lost Origin Full Art Castform #TG11 PSA 10 GEM MINTother	1 in 13	$40.00	0.6%	6	7.1	0.85×
Surging Sparks Elite Trainer Boxother	1 in 13	$34.99	0.6%	4	7.1	0.57×
Ruler of the Black Flame Booster Boxother	1 in 13	$30.00	0.5%	12	7.1	1.70×
Pokémon GO: Snorlax Tinother	1 in 13	$11.00	0.2%	8	7.1	1.13×
My First Battle: Bulbasaur & Pikachuother	12.5%	$6.20	0.2%	6	11.8	0.51×

Values are Cases.gg's own item prices for physical goods; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from cases-gg:api/cases/details, 11 Nov, 14:54 UTC.