Radiant

A box on Cases.gg (classic), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Cases.gg's own item price.

Price

$30.83

Advertised RTP

89.47%

EV $27.59 from 18 items

Observed RTP, 30d

92.55%

78 openings, odds method

Variance

1.9×

of price², per opening

Tail share

20.0%

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

75.0%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

12 openings · below min

7 days

77 openings · below min

30 days

78 openings · below min

since tracking started

78 openings · below min

-0.5%70.5%141.5%

Small sample. 78 openings and 15.6 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	12	62.71%±77.9	—	odds
7d	77	93.73%±30.8	—	odds
30d	78	92.55%±30.6	—	odds
All	78	92.55%±30.6	—	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items and odds18 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 78 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
Secretlab TITAN Evo - Jett Regularother	1 in 500	$750	5.4%	0	0.2	—
VALORANT Phoenix Statueother	1 in 333	$220	2.4%	2	0.2	—
VALORANT Iso Quarter Zip Detachable Jacketother	1 in 200	$170	3.1%	0	0.4	—
VALORANT "Defy the Limits" Zip Hoodieother	1 in 100	$130	4.7%	0	0.8	—
VALORANT $100 Gift Cardother	1 in 100	$100	3.6%	1	0.8	—
VALORANT Stone Wash Hoodieother	1 in 50	$80.00	5.8%	0	1.6	0.00×
Wingman - Secretlab Memory Foam Lumbar Pillow - VALORANT Editionother	1 in 50	$72.00	5.2%	2	1.6	1.28×
Tactibear Large Plushother	1 in 33	$72.00	7.8%	1	2.3	0.43×
VALORANT $50 Gift Cardother	1 in 20	$50.00	9.1%	3	3.9	0.77×
VALORANT Dan the Penguin Cushionother	1 in 20	$42.00	7.6%	2	3.9	0.51×
Valorant Champion Karambit Knife Model 2022 Game Event Commemorative Gift Box Set (Gift Box - Set of 2)other	1 in 20	$36.00	6.5%	7	3.9	1.79×
Yoru Comb Butterflyother	10.0%	$27.00	9.8%	9	7.8	1.15×
VALORANT $25 Gift Cardother	10.0%	$25.00	9.1%	13	7.8	1.67×
Pocket Sage Valorant T-Shirtother	10.0%	$20.00	7.3%	7	7.8	0.90×
VALORANT Luna Buddy Keychainother	10.0%	$15.00	5.4%	11	7.8	1.41×
VALORANT $10 Gift Card - PCother	10.0%	$10.00	3.6%	7	7.8	0.90×
VALORANT Fade XL Pinpin	10.0%	$9.00	3.3%	4	7.8	0.51×
Riot Gun Buddy Keychainother	15.0%	$0.50	0.3%	9	11.7	0.77×

Values are Cases.gg's own item prices for physical goods; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from cases-gg:api/cases/details, 11 Nov, 14:54 UTC.