Redcap Ruckus

A box on Cases.gg (classic), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Cases.gg's own item price.

Price

$4.36

Advertised RTP

89.45%

EV $3.90 from 15 items

Observed RTP, 30d

87.35%

1,115 openings, odds method

Variance

5.1×

of price², per opening

Tail share

1 in 12

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

85.7%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

82.67%±34.92162 openings

7 days

93.43%±15.15860 openings

30 days

87.35%±13.311,115 openings

since tracking started

87.35%±13.311,115 openings

47.0%82.5%118.0%

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	162	82.67%±34.9	−0.4σ	odds
7d	860	93.43%±15.2	+0.5σ	odds
30d	1,115	87.35%±13.3	−0.3σ	odds
All	1,115	87.35%±13.3	−0.3σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items and odds15 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 1,115 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
Duel Decks: Elves vs. Goblins Full Setother	1 in 286	$90.00	8.1%	2	3.9	0.51×
Secret Lair Drop Series: Summer Superdrop 2023: Goblin & Squabblin' Rainbow Foil Editionother	1 in 100	$60.00	15.4%	7	11.2	0.63×
Secret Lair Drop Series: Summer Superdrop 2023: Goblin & Squabblin' Setother	1 in 100	$55.00	14.1%	14	11.2	1.26×
Goblin Settlerother	1 in 33	$15.00	11.5%	32	33.4	0.96×
Goblin Soldier Token (Red and White 1/1)other	1 in 33	$11.00	8.5%	40	33.4	1.20×
Tokens for MTG: Goblin Shaman Plamat Bagother	1 in 33	$10.00	7.7%	44	33.4	1.32×
Goblin Sharpshooterother	1 in 33	$9.80	7.5%	38	33.4	1.14×
Tokens for MTG: Goblin Shaman Dice Bagother	1 in 20	$4.00	5.1%	56	55.8	1.00×
Goblin/Squirrel Tokenother	1 in 20	$2.25	2.9%	54	55.8	0.97×
Goblin Shaman Token (Red 2/2) (V.3)other	1 in 13	$2.00	3.8%	86	83.6	1.03×
Secret Lair Drop: Goblin Settlerother	10.0%	$1.87	4.8%	89	111.5	0.80×
Goblin Shaman Lifepad (15 A7 Sheets)other	10.0%	$1.39	3.6%	118	111.5	1.06×
Jumpstart Pack Summary Card: Goblinsother	12.5%	$0.99	3.2%	132	139.4	0.95×
The Space Family Goblinson (V.2)other	15.0%	$0.51	2.0%	152	167.3	0.91×
Rise of the Hobgoblinsother	20.6%	$0.35	1.9%	251	230.2	1.09×

Values are Cases.gg's own item prices for physical goods; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from cases-gg:api/cases/details, 12 Nov, 03:04 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

Jumpstart Pack Summary Card: Goblinsother$4.36$0.990.23x2h

Tokens for MTG: Goblin Shaman Dice Bagother$4.36$4.000.92x2h

Rise of the Hobgoblinsother$4.36$0.350.08x2h

The Space Family Goblinson (V.2)other$4.36$0.510.12x2h

Goblin Shaman Token (Red 2/2) (V.3)other$4.36$2.000.46x2h

Goblin Shaman Lifepad (15 A7 Sheets)otherPaschaC420$4.36$1.390.32x2h

Tokens for MTG: Goblin Shaman Dice Bagother$4.36$4.000.92x2h

The Space Family Goblinson (V.2)other$4.36$0.510.12x2h

Goblin Shaman Lifepad (15 A7 Sheets)other$4.36$1.390.32x2h

Goblin Shaman Token (Red 2/2) (V.3)other$4.36$2.000.46x2h

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 89.45%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
2 Nov, 21:39 UTC	$4.36	89.45%	15

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedother 100.0%best hit —