Riding Solo
A box on Cases.gg (classic), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Cases.gg's own item price.
Price
$1,308.63
Advertised RTP
89.50%
EV $1,171.22 from 13 items
Observed RTP, 30d
59.33%
27 openings, odds method
Variance
9.2×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 33
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
90.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Small sample. 27 openings and 0.8 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items and odds13 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 27 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 Suzuki Hayabusaother | 1 in 100 | $22.9K | 19.6% | 0 | 0.3 | — |
| Yamaha YZF-R1other | 1 in 100 | $22.1K | 18.9% | 0 | 0.3 | — |
| Suzuki Boulevard M109R B.O.S.S.other | 1 in 100 | $18.7K | 16.0% | 1 | 0.3 | — |
| 2024 KAWASAKI VULCAN® 900 CLASSICother | 1 in 100 | $11.3K | 9.6% | 0 | 0.3 | — |
| 2024 NINJA® 500other | 1 in 50 | $7,080 | 12.1% | 0 | 0.5 | — |
| Yamaha TW200other | 1 in 50 | $6,000 | 10.2% | 0 | 0.5 | — |
| Yamaha ZUMA 125other | 1 in 50 | $4,560 | 7.8% | 0 | 0.5 | — |
| ScorpionEXO Covert FX Full Face Adult Motorcycle Helmetother | 10.0% | $350 | 3.0% | 4 | 2.7 | 1.48× |
| ILM Motorcycle Dual Visor Flip up Modular Full Face Helmetother | 10.0% | $130 | 1.1% | 0 | 2.7 | 0.00× |
| Alpinestars Men's SMX-1 Air v2 Motorcycle Riding Glovesother | 10.0% | $85.00 | 0.7% | 5 | 2.7 | 1.85× |
| Motorcycle Backpack,Waterproof Helmet Backpackother | 20.0% | $39.59 | 0.7% | 9 | 5.4 | 1.67× |
| K&N Motorcycle Oil Filterother | 20.0% | $16.00 | 0.3% | 3 | 5.4 | 0.56× |
| Keychainother | 20.0% | $3.00 | 0.1% | 5 | 5.4 | 0.93× |
Values are Cases.gg's own item prices for physical goods; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
cases-gg:api/cases/details, 11 Nov, 14:54 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 89.50%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $1,309 | 89.50% | 13 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedother 100.0%best hit $18.7K (14.31x)