Rusty
A box on Cases.gg (classic), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Cases.gg's own item price.
Price
$28.57
Advertised RTP
89.48%
EV $25.56 from 18 items
Observed RTP, 30d
85.16%
276 openings, odds method
Variance
5.0×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 19
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
93.9%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items and odds18 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 276 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rust M249 Frost Propother | 1 in 1,000 | $1,157 | 4.5% | 0 | 0.3 | — |
| Rust Alien Red AK Propother | 1 in 400 | $350 | 3.4% | 0 | 0.7 | — |
| Rust Tempered MP5 Propother | 1 in 400 | $350 | 3.4% | 1 | 0.7 | — |
| Rust Default Double Barrel Propother | 1 in 400 | $350 | 3.4% | 0 | 0.7 | — |
| Rust Bchillz SAR Propother | 1 in 400 | $345 | 3.4% | 2 | 0.7 | — |
| Rust Alien Relic SMG Propother | 1 in 200 | $290 | 5.7% | 0 | 1.4 | 0.00× |
| Rust Default Bolt Propother | 1 in 200 | $270 | 5.3% | 0 | 1.4 | 0.00× |
| Rust Throat Rock Propother | 1 in 200 | $225 | 4.4% | 2 | 1.4 | 1.45× |
| Rust Default Thompson Propother | 1 in 200 | $225 | 4.4% | 4 | 1.4 | 2.90× |
| Rust Default AK Propother | 1 in 200 | $199 | 3.9% | 3 | 1.4 | 2.17× |
| Rust Big Grin Facemask Propother | 1 in 200 | $185 | 3.6% | 1 | 1.4 | 0.72× |
| Rust Default Hammer Propother | 1 in 200 | $170 | 3.3% | 0 | 1.4 | 0.00× |
| Rust Default Pyhton Propother | 1 in 133 | $135 | 4.0% | 3 | 2.1 | 1.45× |
| Rust Banana Eoka Propother | 1 in 133 | $110 | 3.2% | 1 | 2.1 | 0.48× |
| Rust Furnace Propother | 12.5% | $20.00 | 9.8% | 20 | 34.5 | 0.58× |
| Rust Pure Ore Tea Propother | 25.0% | $15.00 | 14.7% | 80 | 69.0 | 1.16× |
| Full Gear Metal Signother | 25.0% | $10.00 | 9.8% | 78 | 69.0 | 1.13× |
| Hazzy Metal Signother | 31.4% | $8.00 | 9.8% | 81 | 86.7 | 0.93× |
Values are Cases.gg's own item prices for physical goods; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
cases-gg:api/cases/details, 11 Nov, 20:59 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 89.48%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $28.57 | 89.48% | 18 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedother 100.0%best hit —