Shinigami Pact

A box on Cases.gg (classic), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Cases.gg's own item price.

Price

$15.26

Advertised RTP

89.48%

EV $13.65 from 18 items

Observed RTP, 30d

86.89%

467 openings, odds method

Variance

4.8×

of price², per opening

Tail share

1 in 22

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

81.0%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

10 openings · below min

7 days

90.01%±20.37445 openings

30 days

86.89%±19.88467 openings

since tracking started

86.89%±19.88467 openings

-0.5%82.8%166.0%

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	10	29.46%±135.9	—	odds
7d	445	90.01%±20.4	+0.1σ	odds
30d	467	86.89%±19.9	−0.3σ	odds
All	467	86.89%±19.9	−0.3σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items and odds18 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 467 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
Death Note x Team Liquid - Ryuk Jacketother	1 in 154	$220	10.5%	1	3.0	0.33×
Funko POP Anime Death Note Ryuk Action Figureother	1 in 125	$180	10.5%	8	3.7	2.14×
Death Note Manga Box Setother	1 in 100	$159	11.6%	5	4.7	1.07×
blanc et noir: Takeshi Obata Illustrations (Hardcover)other	1 in 100	$135	9.9%	2	4.7	0.43×
Death Note x Team Liquid - Ryuk Keycap Setother	1 in 100	$120	8.8%	4	4.7	0.86×
Death Note Complete Series Blu-rayother	1 in 50	$50.00	7.3%	7	9.3	0.75×
Death Note All-in-One Edition Mangaother	1 in 44	$40.00	6.6%	10	10.5	0.95×
Death Note x Team Liquid - Ryuk Desk Matother	1 in 44	$30.00	4.9%	13	10.5	1.24×
Death Note - L 8 Inch Plushother	1 in 40	$20.00	3.7%	9	11.7	0.77×
Death Note Light SFC Collectible Figureother	1 in 40	$20.00	3.7%	14	11.7	1.20×
Death Note - Ryuk Movable Plushother	1 in 33	$16.25	3.6%	10	14.0	0.71×
Notebook Set L Leather Journal and Necklace Feather Penother	1 in 33	$13.60	3.0%	10	14.0	0.71×
Kira is Justice Shirtother	1 in 20	$10.00	3.7%	23	23.4	0.99×
Death Note Ceramic Coffee Tea Mugother	1 in 20	$8.00	2.9%	27	23.4	1.16×
iPhone 15 Death Note Phone Casecontainer	10.0%	$5.50	4.0%	55	46.7	1.18×
Misa Amane Necklaceother	10.0%	$3.75	2.7%	47	46.7	1.01×
Death Note Detective L Lanyardother	13.1%	$2.00	1.9%	62	60.9	1.02×
Death Note Keychainother	35.0%	$0.25	0.6%	160	163.5	0.98×

Values are Cases.gg's own item prices for physical goods; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from cases-gg:api/cases/details, 11 Nov, 14:54 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

Notebook Set L Leather Journal and Necklace Feather Penother$15.26$13.600.89x5h

Death Note Keychainother$15.26$0.250.02x5h

iPhone 15 Death Note Phone CasecontainerNic21$15.26$5.500.36x5h

iPhone 15 Death Note Phone Casecontainer$15.26$5.500.36x13h

Death Note Keychainother$15.26$0.250.02x13h

Death Note Detective L Lanyardother$15.26$2.000.13x13h

Death Note Keychainother$15.26$0.250.02x13h

Notebook Set L Leather Journal and Necklace Feather Penother$15.26$13.600.89x13h

Misa Amane Necklaceother$15.26$3.750.25x13h

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 89.48%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
2 Nov, 21:39 UTC	$15.26	89.48%	18

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedother 100.0%best hit —