Smart Home

A box on Cases.gg (classic), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Cases.gg's own item price.

Price

$16.76

Advertised RTP

89.48%

EV $15.00 from 18 items

Observed RTP, 30d

87.53%

749 openings, odds method

Variance

10.1×

of price², per opening

Tail share

1 in 28

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

91.0%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

64.90%±51.43146 openings

7 days

80.80%±26.62545 openings

30 days

87.53%±22.71749 openings

since tracking started

87.53%±22.71749 openings

13.0%65.0%117.0%

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	146	64.90%±51.4	−0.9σ	odds
7d	545	80.80%±26.6	−0.6σ	odds
30d	749	87.53%±22.7	−0.2σ	odds
All	749	87.53%±22.7	−0.2σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items and odds18 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 749 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
iRobot Roomba i7+ (7550) Robot Vacuum with Automatic Dirt Disposalother	1 in 2,000	$880	2.9%	0	0.4	—
Dyson Pure Hot + Cool Air Purifier, Heater + Fan - HEPA Air Filter, Space Heaterother	1 in 833	$550	4.4%	2	0.9	—
Nanoleaf Shapes - Triangle Smarter Kit Bundle (13 Panels)other	1 in 667	$408	4.1%	2	1.1	1.78×
Nest Learning Thermostatother	1 in 200	$380	12.7%	3	3.7	0.80×
Ring Battery Doorbell Proother	1 in 222	$250	7.5%	1	3.4	0.30×
Arlo Pro 4 Spotlight Camera 4 Packother	1 in 200	$240	8.0%	1	3.7	0.27×
Philips Hue Smart Light Starter Kitother	1 in 133	$170	8.5%	7	5.6	1.25×
Apple HomePod miniother	1 in 100	$170	11.3%	10	7.5	1.34×
Amazon Echo Spot (2024 release), Smart alarm clockother	1 in 100	$98.00	6.5%	9	7.5	1.20×
SwitchBot Blind Tilt Motorized Blindsother	1 in 100	$87.00	5.8%	7	7.5	0.93×
TP-Link AC1900 WiFi Extenderother	1 in 100	$60.00	4.0%	4	7.5	0.53×
Tile Mate Black - Bluetooth Trackerother	1 in 40	$25.00	4.1%	28	18.6	1.51×
AUVON Plug-in LED Backlit Night Light with Motion Sensorother	1 in 29	$15.00	3.5%	24	26.2	0.92×
Air Wick Essential Mist Diffuserother	1 in 20	$12.50	4.2%	38	37.5	1.01×
Amazon Basics Smart Light Bulbother	1 in 20	$11.00	3.7%	25	37.5	0.67×
LED Light Stripsother	1 in 13	$9.00	4.5%	56	56.2	1.00×
SD Cardother	30.0%	$2.00	4.0%	239	224.7	1.06×
Cable Organizerother	40.0%	$0.10	0.3%	293	299.6	0.98×

Values are Cases.gg's own item prices for physical goods; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from cases-gg:api/cases/details, 11 Nov, 14:54 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

Dyson Pure Hot + Cool Air Purifier, Heater + Fan - HEPA Air Filter, Space Heaterotherrelease the files kenoq....$16.76$55032.82x4d

Dyson Pure Hot + Cool Air Purifier, Heater + Fan - HEPA Air Filter, Space Heaterotherstrunmercury45$16.76$55032.82x8d

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

Cable Organizerother$16.76$0.100.01x2h

AUVON Plug-in LED Backlit Night Light with Motion Sensorother$16.76$15.000.89x2h

Cable Organizerother$16.76$0.100.01x2h

LED Light StripsotherSavagePlays$16.76$9.000.54x2h

Cable Organizerother$16.76$0.100.01x3h

Amazon Basics Smart Light Bulbother$16.76$11.000.66x3h

SD Cardother$16.76$2.000.12x3h

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 89.48%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
2 Nov, 21:39 UTC	$16.76	89.48%	18

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedother 100.0%best hit $550 (32.82x)