SNKR Drop

A box on Cases.gg (classic), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Cases.gg's own item price.

Price

$42.29

Advertised RTP

89.48%

EV $37.84 from 18 items

Observed RTP, 30d

85.21%

367 openings, odds method

Variance

14.7×

of price², per opening

Tail share

1 in 31

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

90.0%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

10 openings · below min

7 days

77.46%±44.95279 openings

30 days

85.21%±39.19367 openings

since tracking started

85.21%±39.19367 openings

-0.5%151.3%303.0%

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	10	64.79%±237.4	—	odds
7d	279	77.46%±44.9	−0.5σ	odds
30d	367	85.21%±39.2	−0.2σ	odds
All	367	85.21%±39.2	−0.2σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items and odds18 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 367 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
Jordan 1 Retro Low OG SP Fragment x Travis Scott (US 9)other	1 in 333	$2,520	20.0%	1	1.1	0.91×
Nike Hot Step 2 Drake NOCTA Black US M 10other	1 in 200	$440	5.8%	1	1.8	0.54×
Jordan 5 Retro El Grito Sail US M 10other	1 in 200	$440	5.8%	3	1.8	1.63×
New Balance 860v2 Comme des Garcons Homme Grey US M 10other	1 in 154	$420	7.2%	4	2.4	1.68×
Nike Kobe 8 Protro Lakers Home US M 10other	1 in 200	$390	5.2%	3	1.8	1.63×
Jordan 12 Retro Barons US M 11other	1 in 133	$379	7.5%	3	2.8	1.09×
Nike Kobe 5 ProtroX-Ray US M 8other	1 in 154	$350	6.0%	0	2.4	0.00×
Nike Air Force 1 Low G-Dragon Peaceminusone Para-Noise 3.0 US M 9.5other	1 in 80	$270	8.9%	2	4.6	0.44×
Nike Kobe 9 Elite Low Protro Halo US M 9other	1 in 100	$245	6.5%	2	3.7	0.54×
Nike Air Max 90 Reverse Duck Camo US M 9other	1 in 78	$225	7.7%	3	4.7	0.63×
Nike Air Force 1 Mid Supreme White US M 8.5other	1 in 80	$185	6.1%	6	4.6	1.31×
Nike Air Force 3 Low SP Nigo White US M 9.5other	1 in 154	$180	3.1%	2	2.4	0.84×
Nike Dunk Low QS CO.JP What The (2024) US M 10other	1 in 133	$110	2.2%	6	2.8	2.18×
Red Nike Dunk Replacement Style Lacesother	12.5%	$5.00	1.7%	48	45.9	1.05×
Black Alexander McQueen Trainer Shoelacesother	15.0%	$4.00	1.6%	53	55.0	0.96×
Dark Brown Nike Dunk Replacement Style Lacesother	17.5%	$3.50	1.6%	66	64.2	1.03×
White Nike Dunk Replacement Style Lacesother	17.7%	$3.00	1.4%	61	65.0	0.94×
Burgundy Flat Trainer Shoelacesother	27.3%	$2.50	1.8%	103	100.0	1.03×

Values are Cases.gg's own item prices for physical goods; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from cases-gg:api/cases/details, 11 Nov, 14:54 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

Jordan 1 Retro Low OG SP Fragment x Travis Scott (US 9)otherMysterious Dolphin$42.29$2,52059.59x3d

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

Burgundy Flat Trainer Shoelacesother$42.29$2.500.06x1h

Nike Kobe 9 Elite Low Protro Halo US M 9other$42.29$2455.79x1h

Dark Brown Nike Dunk Replacement Style Lacesother$42.29$3.500.08x1h

Dark Brown Nike Dunk Replacement Style LacesotherTrecky$42.29$3.500.08x1h

Burgundy Flat Trainer Shoelacesother$42.29$2.500.06x12h

Dark Brown Nike Dunk Replacement Style Lacesother$42.29$3.500.08x12h

Black Alexander McQueen Trainer Shoelacesother$42.29$4.000.09x12h

Dark Brown Nike Dunk Replacement Style LacesotherFriendly Chipmunk$42.29$3.500.08x12h

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 89.48%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
2 Nov, 21:39 UTC	$42.29	89.48%	18

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedother 100.0%best hit $2,520 (59.59x)