Splish Splash

A box on Cases.gg (classic), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Cases.gg's own item price.

Price

$31.47

Advertised RTP

89.47%

EV $28.16 from 18 items

Observed RTP, 30d

54.56%

493 openings, odds method

Variance

95.1×

of price², per opening

Tail share

1 in 91

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

92.2%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

112 openings · below min

7 days

397 openings · below min

30 days

54.56%±86.09493 openings

since tracking started

54.56%±86.09493 openings

-0.5%124.3%249.0%

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	112	67.63%±180.6	—	odds
7d	397	50.83%±95.9	—	odds
30d	493	54.56%±86.1	−0.8σ	odds
All	493	54.56%±86.1	−0.8σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items and odds18 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 493 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
Sea-Doo Spark Trixx 2023other	1 in 2,500	$12.1K	17.2%	0	0.2	—
Waydoo Flyer ONE Plus eFoil - EPP - Electric Surfboardother	1 in 1,587	$7,050	15.8%	0	0.3	—
Coleman SaluSpa Miami AirJet Inflatable Hot Tubother	1 in 182	$575	11.2%	1	2.7	0.37×
LEFEET C1 Water Scooterother	1 in 222	$520	8.3%	2	2.2	0.90×
TWIG (Twin Fin / 4'10") x Kalani Robb PROother	1 in 167	$455	9.7%	4	3.0	1.35×
ADVENOR Paddle Boardother	1 in 157	$240	5.4%	1	3.1	0.32×
Intex 68307EP Explorer K2 Inflatable Kayakother	1 in 147	$200	4.8%	5	3.4	1.49×
SOLSTICE ORIGINAL Inflatable Adult Pool Lounger Floatother	1 in 43	$56.00	4.7%	9	11.6	0.78×
SUP Electric Pumpother	1 in 40	$46.00	4.0%	11	12.2	0.90×
Pirate Boat Swimming Pool Floatother	1 in 33	$30.00	3.2%	16	14.8	1.08×
Speedo Unisex-Adult Swim Training Finsother	1 in 33	$27.00	2.9%	12	14.8	0.81×
Greatever Dry Snorkel Setother	1 in 29	$20.00	2.5%	18	17.3	1.04×
Speedo Speed Socket 2.0 Swim Goggleother	1 in 26	$14.50	2.0%	29	18.7	1.55×
Classic Kickboard for Swim Trainingother	1 in 20	$8.20	1.4%	26	24.4	1.07×
Abahub 9/10'' SUP Single Center Finother	1 in 20	$8.00	1.4%	30	24.7	1.22×
Speedo Silicone Swim Capother	15.0%	$3.20	1.7%	77	74.0	1.04×
Sticky Bumps Surf Wax BASEother	25.0%	$2.80	2.5%	117	123.3	0.95×
TYR Ergo Swim Clipother	28.9%	$1.25	1.3%	135	142.5	0.95×

Values are Cases.gg's own item prices for physical goods; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from cases-gg:api/cases/details, 11 Nov, 20:59 UTC.