Squirtle Splash
A box on Cases.gg (classic), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Cases.gg's own item price.
Price
$7.24
Advertised RTP
89.44%
EV $6.48 from 18 items
Observed RTP, 30d
113.99%
1,856 openings, odds method
Variance
35.1×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 80
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
85.3%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items and odds18 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 1,856 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Squirtle (MCDP 007)other | 1 in 200 | $600 | 46.3% | 15 | 9.3 | 1.62× |
| Squirtle (MEW 007)other | 1 in 133 | $65.00 | 7.5% | 8 | 13.9 | 0.57× |
| Pokémon 8" Squirtle Plushother | 1 in 100 | $35.00 | 5.4% | 16 | 18.6 | 0.86× |
| Squirtle (MEW 170)other | 1 in 100 | $26.50 | 4.1% | 24 | 18.6 | 1.29× |
| Squirtle (SCR 148)other | 1 in 100 | $25.00 | 3.9% | 19 | 18.6 | 1.02× |
| Pokemon Shoulder Bag Cross Body Bag for Kidsother | 1 in 100 | $23.00 | 3.6% | 19 | 18.6 | 1.02× |
| Squirtle (svG 052)other | 1 in 100 | $21.65 | 3.3% | 19 | 18.6 | 1.02× |
| Pokémon Squirtle Water Type Schematic T-Shirtother | 1 in 40 | $18.00 | 6.9% | 52 | 46.4 | 1.12× |
| Pokémon GO Pin Collection—Squirtleother | 1 in 40 | $12.00 | 4.6% | 48 | 46.4 | 1.03× |
| My First Battle: Charmander & Squirtleother | 1 in 29 | $7.25 | 3.9% | 68 | 65.0 | 1.05× |
| My First Squirtle (sv2a 170)Battle: Charmander & Squirtleother | 1 in 20 | $3.90 | 3.0% | 98 | 92.8 | 1.06× |
| Squirtle (CLK 001)other | 1 in 20 | $3.70 | 2.9% | 97 | 92.8 | 1.05× |
| Squirtle (CLB 001)other | 1 in 20 | $3.50 | 2.7% | 95 | 92.8 | 1.02× |
| Squirtle (MA 46)other | 1 in 13 | $0.96 | 1.1% | 123 | 139.2 | 0.88× |
| Squirtle (MCD25 17)other | 1 in 13 | $0.30 | 0.3% | 127 | 139.2 | 0.91× |
| Squirtle (S-P 290)other | 15.0% | $0.09 | 0.2% | 271 | 278.4 | 0.97× |
| Squirtle (B2 93)other | 15.0% | $0.05 | 0.1% | 293 | 278.4 | 1.05× |
| Squirtle (SVP 048)other | 25.3% | $0.01 | 0.0% | 464 | 468.6 | 0.99× |
Values are Cases.gg's own item prices for physical goods; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
cases-gg:api/cases/details, 11 Nov, 14:54 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 89.44%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $7.24 | 89.44% | 18 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedother 100.0%best hit $600 (82.87x)