Squishy

A box on Cases.gg (classic), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Cases.gg's own item price.

Price

$27.78

Advertised RTP

89.49%

EV $24.86 from 18 items

Observed RTP, 30d

54.23%

284 openings, odds method

Variance

19.9×

of price², per opening

Tail share

1 in 45

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

83.0%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

24 openings · below min

7 days

52.48%±53.03272 openings

30 days

54.23%±51.90284 openings

since tracking started

54.23%±51.90284 openings

-0.5%118.3%237.0%

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	24	57.61%±178.5	—	odds
7d	272	52.48%±53.0	−1.4σ	odds
30d	284	54.23%±51.9	−1.3σ	odds
All	284	54.23%±51.9	−1.3σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items and odds18 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 284 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
Squishmallow Jack The Black Cat 12 Inch Plush Blackother	1 in 500	$2,200	17.7%	0	0.6	—
Squishmallow Pokemon Gengar and Pikachu 12 Inch Plush Set (Pokemon Center Version)other	1 in 200	$890	17.9%	0	1.4	0.00×
Squishmallow Select Series Hans the Hedgehog 16" Plush Goldother	1 in 200	$585	11.8%	1	1.4	0.70×
Squishmallow Star Wars Chewbacca 20 Inch Plushother	1 in 100	$125	5.0%	0	2.8	0.00×
Squishmallow x Pokemon Pikachu 12 Inch Pokemon Center Exclusive Plushother	1 in 125	$115	3.7%	5	2.3	2.20×
Squishmallow Pokemon 20" Gengar Plushother	1 in 100	$72.00	2.9%	4	2.8	1.41×
Squishmallows 16" Austin The Avocadoother	1 in 50	$55.00	4.4%	0	5.7	0.00×
Squishmallow Malcom The Mushroom 12 Inch Plushother	1 in 50	$52.00	4.2%	6	5.7	1.06×
Squishmallow Wendy the Frog 16" Plushother	1 in 33	$44.00	5.3%	5	8.5	0.59×
Kirby Plushieother	1 in 33	$38.00	4.6%	10	8.5	1.17×
Squishmallow Pokemon Snorlax 14" Plushother	1 in 33	$33.00	4.0%	10	8.5	1.17×
Squishmallow Pokemon Pikachu Holiday 14" Plushother	1 in 33	$27.00	3.3%	13	8.5	1.53×
Black Cat Plushother	1 in 33	$21.00	2.5%	17	8.5	2.00×
Squishmallows Original 12-Inch Danny Dino with Bow Tieother	1 in 33	$17.50	2.1%	4	8.5	0.47×
Soft Black Cat Plush Toy Pillowother	1 in 25	$13.00	2.1%	8	11.4	0.70×
Penguin Pendant Keychainother	10.0%	$11.00	4.4%	31	28.4	1.09×
Turtle Doll Keychainother	10.0%	$7.70	3.1%	39	28.4	1.37×
Key Ringother	50.0%	$0.50	1.0%	131	142.0	0.92×

Values are Cases.gg's own item prices for physical goods; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from cases-gg:api/cases/details, 11 Nov, 14:54 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

Squishmallow Select Series Hans the Hedgehog 16" Plush Goldother$27.78$58521.06x6d

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

Key Ringother$27.78$0.500.02x4h

Squishmallow x Pokemon Pikachu 12 Inch Pokemon Center Exclusive Plushother$27.78$1154.14x4h

Turtle Doll Keychainother$27.78$7.700.28x4h

Key RingotherEriksZ$27.78$0.500.02x4h

Squishmallow Wendy the Frog 16" Plushother$27.78$44.001.58x4h

Turtle Doll Keychainother$27.78$7.700.28x4h

Penguin Pendant Keychainother$27.78$11.000.40x4h

Squishmallows Original 12-Inch Danny Dino with Bow Tieother$27.78$17.500.63x4h

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 89.49%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
2 Nov, 21:39 UTC	$27.78	89.49%	18

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedother 100.0%best hit $585 (21.06x)