Sticker Bomb
A box on Cases.gg (classic), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Cases.gg's own item price.
Price
$8.22
Advertised RTP
89.40%
EV $7.35 from 18 items
Observed RTP, 30d
99.08%
338 openings, odds method
Variance
2.7×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 10
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
70.2%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items and odds18 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 338 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Diamond Stickerother | 1 in 133 | $99.99 | 10.2% | 5 | 2.5 | 1.97× |
| Gold Crown Stickerother | 1 in 100 | $60.00 | 8.2% | 6 | 3.4 | 1.78× |
| Chrome Hearts Stickerother | 1 in 33 | $35.00 | 14.3% | 7 | 10.1 | 0.69× |
| VLONE Stickerother | 1 in 20 | $27.00 | 18.4% | 12 | 16.9 | 0.71× |
| Cash Stickerother | 1 in 20 | $20.00 | 13.6% | 21 | 16.9 | 1.24× |
| Turbo Stickerother | 1 in 20 | $18.20 | 12.4% | 18 | 16.9 | 1.07× |
| Trapstar Stickerother | 1 in 20 | $16.00 | 10.9% | 21 | 16.9 | 1.24× |
| Lean Stickerother | 1 in 20 | $8.50 | 5.8% | 10 | 16.9 | 0.59× |
| Smile Stickerother | 1 in 20 | $2.31 | 1.6% | 12 | 16.9 | 0.71× |
| Lyrical Lemonade Stickerother | 1 in 20 | $2.00 | 1.4% | 23 | 16.9 | 1.36× |
| Bearbrick Stickerother | 1 in 20 | $1.75 | 1.2% | 13 | 16.9 | 0.77× |
| Thrasher Stickerother | 1 in 20 | $1.20 | 0.8% | 22 | 16.9 | 1.30× |
| Lobotomy Stickerother | 1 in 13 | $0.46 | 0.5% | 24 | 25.4 | 0.95× |
| Social Anxiety Club Stickerother | 1 in 13 | $0.39 | 0.4% | 19 | 25.4 | 0.75× |
| Happy Melted Face Stickerother | 1 in 13 | $0.22 | 0.2% | 28 | 25.4 | 1.10× |
| Smiling Flower Stickerother | 1 in 13 | $0.20 | 0.2% | 29 | 25.4 | 1.14× |
| Panda Drip Stickerother | 1 in 13 | $0.06 | 0.1% | 26 | 25.4 | 1.03× |
| Car Stickerother | 12.8% | $0.01 | 0.0% | 42 | 43.1 | 0.97× |
Values are Cases.gg's own item prices for physical goods; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
cases-gg:api/cases/details, 11 Nov, 14:54 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 89.40%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $8.22 | 89.40% | 18 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedother 100.0%best hit —