Price
$92.44
Advertised RTP
89.49%
EV $82.73 from 11 items
Observed RTP, 30d
86.14%
216 openings, odds method
Variance
5.6×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 17
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
90.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items and odds11 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 216 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Supreme Ernie Barnes (Set of 5) Skateboard Deck Set Multicolorother | 1 in 200 | $2,040 | 12.3% | 0 | 1.1 | 0.00× |
| Bearbrick BAPE Mickey Mouse 1000%other | 1 in 67 | $1,172 | 21.3% | 6 | 3.2 | 1.85× |
| Bearbrick Halo Master Chief 400% Greenother | 1 in 50 | $615 | 14.9% | 4 | 4.3 | 0.93× |
| Bearbrick x BAPE Baby Milo(R) Camo Shark 100% & 400% Set Greenother | 1 in 50 | $400 | 9.7% | 2 | 4.3 | 0.46× |
| Bearbrick Project Mercury Astronaut 100% & 400% Setother | 1 in 50 | $162 | 3.9% | 1 | 4.3 | 0.23× |
| The Last Supper by Leonardo Davinci 24" x 48"other | 1 in 50 | $120 | 2.9% | 3 | 4.3 | 0.69× |
| adidas NMD R1 Trail Guardians of the Galaxy Groot (US Men's 4.5)other | 10.0% | $72.00 | 8.7% | 27 | 21.6 | 1.25× |
| Labubu The Monsters Coca Cola Series Surprise Shake Vinyl Plush Figureother | 20.0% | $56.00 | 13.5% | 34 | 43.2 | 0.79× |
| Chrome Hearts Stickerother | 20.0% | $35.00 | 8.5% | 51 | 43.2 | 1.18× |
| Satoru Gojo - Fabric Printother | 20.0% | $16.00 | 3.9% | 41 | 43.2 | 0.95× |
| Artificial Bonsai Treeother | 20.0% | $2.00 | 0.5% | 47 | 43.2 | 1.09× |
Values are Cases.gg's own item prices for physical goods; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
cases-gg:api/cases/details, 11 Nov, 14:54 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 89.49%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $92.44 | 89.49% | 11 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedother 100.0%best hit $1,172 (12.68x)