Super Bowl Sunday

A box on Cases.gg (classic), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Cases.gg's own item price.

Price

$167.79

Advertised RTP

89.50%

EV $150.17 from 12 items

Observed RTP, 30d

131.71%

44 openings, odds method

Variance

3.2×

of price², per opening

Tail share

15.5%

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

84.5%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

7 days

36 openings · below min

30 days

44 openings · below min

since tracking started

44 openings · below min

78.5%137.8%197.0%

Small sample. 44 openings and 6.8 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	0	—	—	—
7d	36	138.30%±58.2	—	odds
30d	44	131.71%±52.7	—	odds
All	44	131.71%±52.7	—	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items and odds12 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 44 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
Tom Brady New England Patriots Autographed 2022 - Present Nike Limited Jerseyother	1 in 400	$2,880	4.8%	1	0.1	—
Patrick Mahomes Kansas City Chiefs Autographed Super Bowl LVIII Duke Footballother	1 in 400	$2,400	4.0%	0	0.1	—
Autographed Tampa Bay Buccaneers Tom Brady Fanatics Authentic Deluxe Framed 16" x 20" Super Bowl LV Champions Super Bowl LV Action Photographother	1 in 400	$2,219	3.7%	0	0.1	—
Charles Woodson Packers Signed & Inscribed Riddell Speed Authentic Helmet LE /21other	1 in 400	$2,200	3.7%	0	0.1	—
Griese, Marino, Tagovailoa Dolphins Signed Speed Lunar Helmet LE /22other	1 in 400	$1,950	3.2%	0	0.1	—
Autographed Tampa Bay Buccaneers Tom Brady Fanatics Authentic 8" x 10" Super Bowl LV Champions Super Bowl LV Action Photographother	1 in 400	$1,920	3.2%	1	0.1	—
Jason Witten Cowboys Signed & Inscribed 2022 Salute to Service Helmet LE /6other	1 in 100	$960	6.4%	0	0.4	—
Philadelphia Eagles Super Bowl LIX Champions WWE Legacy Title Beltother	1 in 33	$659	13.2%	1	1.3	0.76×
Super Bowl LIX Wilson Pro Footballother	10.0%	$240	16.0%	5	4.4	1.14×
Unisex FENTY for Mitchell & Ness White Super Bowl LVII Icon Pullover Hoodie (US L)other	14.5%	$144	13.9%	10	6.4	1.57×
Philadelphia Eagles Super Bowl LIX Champions 14" x 26" Framed Art Vinyl Album Printother	30.0%	$80.00	16.0%	13	13.2	0.98×
Philadelphia Eagles Super Bowl LIX Champions 13" x 13" Framed Art Vinyl Record Printother	40.0%	$45.00	12.0%	13	17.6	0.74×

Values are Cases.gg's own item prices for physical goods; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from cases-gg:api/cases/details, 13 Nov, 02:20 UTC.