Supreme Lottery
A box on Cases.gg (Budget), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Cases.gg's own item price.
Price
$1.77
Advertised RTP
89.34%
EV $1.58 from 22 items
Observed RTP, 30d
79.18%
9,938 openings, odds method
Variance
59.5×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 19
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
84.6%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items and odds22 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 9,967 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are Cases.gg's own item prices for physical goods; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
cases-gg:api/cases/details, 11 Nov, 20:59 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 89.34%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $1.77 | 89.34% | 22 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedother 100.0%best hit $185 (104.5x)