Survival Kit
A box on Cases.gg (classic), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Cases.gg's own item price.
Price
$0.66
Advertised RTP
89.28%
EV $0.59 from 18 items
Observed RTP, 30d
82.04%
8,742 openings, odds method
Variance
31.5×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 72
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
93.9%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items and odds18 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 9,042 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fiskars Survival Axeother | 1 in 5,000 | $85.00 | 2.9% | 1 | 1.8 | 0.55× |
| First Aid Kitother | 1 in 2,000 | $69.00 | 5.9% | 6 | 4.5 | 1.33× |
| Portable Solar Chargerother | 1 in 1,429 | $60.00 | 7.1% | 6 | 6.3 | 0.95× |
| Mini Gas Stoveother | 1 in 1,000 | $47.00 | 8.0% | 8 | 9.0 | 0.88× |
| Stainless Steel Multitoolother | 1 in 500 | $34.50 | 11.7% | 16 | 18.1 | 0.88× |
| Firestarter Kitother | 1 in 500 | $20.00 | 6.8% | 12 | 18.1 | 0.66× |
| LED Headlampother | 1 in 400 | $16.99 | 7.2% | 20 | 22.6 | 0.88× |
| Paracord Braceletother | 1 in 200 | $12.00 | 10.2% | 45 | 45.2 | 1.00× |
| Camping Utensil Setother | 1 in 200 | $8.99 | 7.6% | 40 | 45.2 | 0.88× |
| Water Purification Tabletsother | 1 in 200 | $5.00 | 4.2% | 48 | 45.2 | 1.06× |
| Windproof Matchesother | 1 in 200 | $5.00 | 4.2% | 34 | 45.2 | 0.75× |
| Natural Pine Soapother | 1 in 200 | $4.00 | 3.4% | 42 | 45.2 | 0.93× |
| Bird Whistleother | 1 in 133 | $3.00 | 3.8% | 57 | 67.8 | 0.84× |
| Emergency Blanketother | 1 in 133 | $2.99 | 3.8% | 73 | 67.8 | 1.08× |
| Compassother | 1 in 80 | $1.30 | 2.8% | 94 | 113.0 | 0.83× |
| Campfire Pinpin | 1 in 20 | $0.35 | 3.0% | 428 | 452.1 | 0.95× |
| Pine Cone Keychainother | 10.0% | $0.20 | 3.4% | 942 | 904.2 | 1.04× |
| Realistic Mushroom Pinpin | 78.9% | $0.03 | 4.0% | 7,170 | 7130.5 | 1.01× |
Values are Cases.gg's own item prices for physical goods; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
cases-gg:api/cases/details, 11 Nov, 14:54 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 89.28%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $0.66 | 89.28% | 18 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedother 100.0%best hit $85.00 (128.8x)