Ten Tails

A box on Cases.gg (classic), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Cases.gg's own item price.

Price

$41.59

Advertised RTP

89.49%

EV $37.22 from 16 items

Observed RTP, 30d

68.73%

201 openings, odds method

Variance

4.2×

of price², per opening

Tail share

1 in 17

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

83.0%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

6 openings · below min

7 days

68.39%±29.62186 openings

30 days

68.73%±28.50201 openings

since tracking started

68.73%±28.50201 openings

-0.5%113.0%226.5%

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	6	61.15%±164.9	—	odds
7d	186	68.39%±29.6	−1.4σ	odds
30d	201	68.73%±28.5	−1.4σ	odds
All	201	68.73%±28.5	−1.4σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items and odds16 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 201 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
Funko Pop! Animation Naruto Shippuden Kurama Mode (Glow) GameStop Exclusive 6 Inch Figure #97other	1 in 100	$557	15.0%	1	2.0	0.50×
Higround Naruto x Akatsuki Mousepadother	1 in 100	$400	10.7%	1	2.0	0.50×
Naruto - The Complete Series - Blu-ray - Limited Editionother	1 in 50	$300	16.1%	4	4.0	1.00×
Naruto Box Set 1: Volumes 1-27other	1 in 50	$245	13.2%	2	4.0	0.50×
Naruto Uzumaki G.E.M. Series 15th Anniversary Figureother	1 in 50	$150	8.1%	1	4.0	0.25×
Naruto Shippuden - Akatsuki Letterman Jacketother	1 in 33	$96.00	7.7%	5	6.0	0.83×
Kakashi Hatake Nendoroidother	1 in 33	$60.00	4.8%	9	6.0	1.49×
Funko Pop! Animation Naruto Shippuden Kotetsu Hagane Figure #1197other	1 in 33	$45.00	3.6%	10	6.0	1.66×
Funko Pop! Moment: Naruto: Shippuden - Pain vs Narutoother	1 in 33	$35.00	2.8%	4	6.0	0.66×
Naruto Shippuden Ichiraku Ramen Bowlother	1 in 20	$28.00	3.8%	9	10.1	0.90×
Naruto - Scroll Artother	1 in 20	$22.00	3.0%	12	10.1	1.19×
Naruto Hanging Poster Canvasother	1 in 20	$17.15	2.3%	9	10.1	0.90×
Naruto 7 Inch Sitting Plushother	1 in 20	$12.00	1.6%	10	10.1	1.00×
Naruto Shippuden Konoha Group A5 Notebookother	15.0%	$7.00	2.8%	25	30.1	0.83×
Akatsuki Cloud AirPod Casecontainer	20.0%	$4.80	2.6%	48	40.2	1.19×
Naruto Bandai Spirits Memorable Saga Figureother	25.0%	$2.80	1.9%	51	50.3	1.01×

Values are Cases.gg's own item prices for physical goods; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from cases-gg:api/cases/details, 11 Nov, 14:54 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

Funko Pop! Animation Naruto Shippuden Kurama Mode (Glow) GameStop Exclusive 6 Inch Figure #97other$41.59$55713.39x4d

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

Naruto Bandai Spirits Memorable Saga Figureother$41.59$2.800.07x11m

Funko Pop! Animation Naruto Shippuden Kotetsu Hagane Figure #1197other$41.59$45.001.08x11m

Naruto Shippuden Konoha Group A5 Notebookother$41.59$7.000.17x11m

Kakashi Hatake Nendoroidother$41.59$60.001.44x11m

Funko Pop! Moment: Naruto: Shippuden - Pain vs Narutoother$41.59$35.000.84x11m

Naruto Bandai Spirits Memorable Saga FigureotherTrecky$41.59$2.800.07x11m

Naruto Shippuden Konoha Group A5 Notebookother$41.59$7.000.17x2d

Funko Pop! Animation Naruto Shippuden Kotetsu Hagane Figure #1197other$41.59$45.001.08x2d

Akatsuki Cloud AirPod Casecontainer$41.59$4.800.12x2d

Naruto Shippuden Konoha Group A5 Notebookother$41.59$7.000.17x2d

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 89.49%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
2 Nov, 21:39 UTC	$41.59	89.49%	16

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedother 100.0%best hit $557 (13.39x)