The Investor

A box on Cases.gg (Gold), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Cases.gg's own item price.

Price

$154.71

Advertised RTP

89.50%

EV $138.47 from 16 items

Observed RTP, 30d

86.19%

321 openings, odds method

Variance

121.2×

of price², per opening

Tail share

1 in 23

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

90.0%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

22 openings · below min

7 days

82.53%±140.73235 openings

30 days

86.19%±120.41321 openings

since tracking started

86.19%±120.41321 openings

-0.5%268.5%537.5%

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	22	76.95%±459.9	—	odds
7d	235	82.53%±140.7	−0.1σ	odds
30d	321	86.19%±120.4	−0.1σ	odds
All	321	86.19%±120.4	−0.1σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items and odds16 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 321 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
1 kilo Cast-Poured Gold Bar - APMEXother	1 in 10,000	$148K	10.7%	0	0.0	—
10 oz Gold Bar - The Perth Mint (In Assay)other	1 in 5,000	$46K	6.6%	0	0.1	—
100 gram Cast-Poured Gold Bar - APMEXother	1 in 2,000	$13.5K	4.9%	1	0.2	—
90% Silver Coins - $250 Face Value Bagother	1 in 2,000	$8,800	3.2%	0	0.2	—
1 oz Gold Bar - Royal Canadian Mint New Design (In Assay)other	1 in 769	$4,950	4.6%	1	0.4	—
1 oz Gold Bar - APMEX (TEP)other	1 in 667	$4,950	5.4%	0	0.5	—
2023 Mexico 1 oz Reverse Proof Gold Libertadother	1 in 1,000	$4,600	3.3%	0	0.3	—
1 Kilo Silver Bar - PAMP Suisse (Serialized)other	1 in 500	$1,600	2.3%	0	0.6	—
1 oz Palladium Bar - Valcambi Suisse (In Assay)other	1 in 667	$1,500	1.6%	0	0.5	—
10 gram Gold Bar - PAMP Lady Fortuna Veriscan® (In Assay)other	1 in 204	$1,500	5.3%	2	1.6	1.27×
10 oz Silver Bar - Secondary Marketother	1 in 33	$1,200	26.0%	7	9.6	0.73×
5 gram Gold Bar - Secondary Marketother	1 in 133	$990	5.4%	6	2.4	2.49×
2024 Niue 10 oz Silver $20 Star Wars: Mandalorian Beskar Barother	1 in 167	$630	2.7%	0	1.9	0.00×
10 oz Silver Bar - Royal Canadian Mint (.9999 Fine, New Style)other	1 in 100	$580	4.2%	4	3.2	1.25×
5 oz Silver Bar - APMEXother	1 in 30	$550	13.1%	8	10.6	0.76×
Chocolate Gold Coinother	90.0%	$1.00	0.6%	292	288.9	1.01×

Values are Cases.gg's own item prices for physical goods; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from cases-gg:api/cases/details, 12 Nov, 03:04 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

100 gram Cast-Poured Gold Bar - APMEXother$155$13.5K87.26x3d

1 oz Gold Bar - Royal Canadian Mint New Design (In Assay)other$155$4,95032.00x7d

10 gram Gold Bar - PAMP Lady Fortuna Veriscan® (In Assay)other$155$1,5009.70x7h

10 gram Gold Bar - PAMP Lady Fortuna Veriscan® (In Assay)other$155$1,5009.70x5d

10 oz Silver Bar - Secondary Marketother$155$1,2007.76x5d

10 oz Silver Bar - Secondary Marketother$155$1,2007.76x6d

10 oz Silver Bar - Secondary Marketother$155$1,2007.76x7d

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

Chocolate Gold Coinother$155$1.000.01x7h

10 gram Gold Bar - PAMP Lady Fortuna Veriscan® (In Assay)other$155$1,5009.70x7h

Chocolate Gold CoinotherCamel No. 9$155$1.000.01x7h

Chocolate Gold Coinother$155$1.000.01x8h

5 oz Silver Bar - APMEXother$155$5503.56x8h

Chocolate Gold CoinotherKICK/JUSTSAN666$155$1.000.01x8h

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 89.50%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
2 Nov, 21:39 UTC	$155	89.50%	16

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedother 100.0%best hit $13.5K (87.26x)