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Thief

A box on Cases.gg (classic), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Cases.gg's own item price.

Price
$43.71
Advertised RTP
89.49%
EV $39.12 from 16 items
Observed RTP, 30d
116.17%
476 openings, odds method
Variance
17.0×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 44
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
91.0%
of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
24 hours
18 openings · below min
7 days
126.03%±45.18320 openings
30 days
116.17%±37.04476 openings
since tracking started
116.17%±37.04476 openings
-0.5%109.5%219.5%

Windowsthe test per window

WindowOpeningsObservedDev.Method
24h1828.15%±190.5—odds
7d320126.03%±45.2+1.6σodds
30d476116.17%±37.0+1.4σodds
All476116.17%±37.0+1.4σodds
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items and odds16 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 476 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
ItemOddsValueEV shareObservedExpectedHot / cold
Gucci Off The Grid x 100 Thieves Backpackother1 in 500$2,89114.8%21.0—
100 Thieves Golden Bear 5 Year Varsity Jacket (US M)other1 in 333$1,45011.1%31.42.10×
100 Thieves x Higround Summit 65 Onyx Keyboardother1 in 200$84010.7%22.40.84×
100 Thieves x Higround Summit 65 Cartograph Keyboardother1 in 200$6408.2%32.41.26×
100 Thieves Numbers Bomber Jacket (US L)other1 in 133$5109.8%43.61.12×
100 Thieves x Pokémon Pikachu Core Hoodie (US L)other1 in 133$3606.9%23.60.56×
100 Thieves Enter Infinity Hoodie Lemonade (US L)other1 in 100$3158.1%34.80.63×
100 Thieves x Pokémon Pikachu Core T-shirtother1 in 100$2807.2%94.81.89×
100 Thieves x Jujutsu Kaisen Sukuna Center T-Shirt (US XL)other1 in 100$2105.4%24.80.42×
100 Thieves Tri-color Zip Windbreakerother1 in 100$96.002.5%74.81.47×
100 Thieves Foundations SS'24 Nylon Shirt - Stonewash Greenother1 in 100$89.002.3%94.81.89×
100 Thieves Foundations SS'24 Mesh Short - Graphiteother1 in 100$58.001.5%44.80.84×
100 Thieves Foundations FW'23 SS Pocket T-Shirt - Forestother1 in 100$38.001.0%74.81.47×
100 Thieves Foundations SS'24 Trucker Hat - Goldother1 in 20$30.003.8%1923.80.80×
100 Thieves Foundations Embroidered Crew Socks - Redother1 in 20$14.001.8%2223.80.92×
100 Thieves Stickerother80.0%$2.505.1%378380.80.99×
Values are Cases.gg's own item prices for physical goods; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from cases-gg:api/cases/details, 11 Nov, 08:49 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

Gucci Off The Grid x 100 Thieves Backpackother$43.71$2,89166.14x
Gucci Off The Grid x 100 Thieves Backpackother$43.71$2,89166.14x
100 Thieves Golden Bear 5 Year Varsity Jacket (US M)other$43.71$1,45033.17x
100 Thieves Golden Bear 5 Year Varsity Jacket (US M)other$43.71$1,45033.17x
100 Thieves Golden Bear 5 Year Varsity Jacket (US M)otherEriksZ$43.71$1,45033.17x
100 Thieves x Higround Summit 65 Onyx Keyboardother$43.71$84019.22x
100 Thieves x Higround Summit 65 Onyx KeyboardotherTrecky$43.71$84019.22x
100 Thieves x Higround Summit 65 Cartograph Keyboardother$43.71$64014.64x
100 Thieves x Higround Summit 65 Cartograph Keyboardother$43.71$64014.64x
100 Thieves x Higround Summit 65 Cartograph Keyboardother$43.71$64014.64x

Latest dropsnewest first

All Latest drops →
100 Thieves Stickerother$43.71$2.500.06x
100 Thieves Stickerother$43.71$2.500.06x
100 Thieves Stickerother$43.71$2.500.06x
100 Thieves Tri-color Zip Windbreakerother$43.71$96.002.20x
100 Thieves Stickerother$43.71$2.500.06x
100 Thieves StickerotherKICK/JUSTSAN666$43.71$2.500.06x
100 Thieves Stickerother$43.71$2.500.06x
100 Thieves Stickerother$43.71$2.500.06x
100 Thieves Stickerother$43.71$2.500.06x
100 Thieves Stickerother$43.71$2.500.06x

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 89.49%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

CapturedPriceAdvertisedItems
2 Nov, 21:39 UTC$43.7189.49%16
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedother 100.0%best hit $2,891 (66.14x)