Thirsty

A box on Cases.gg (classic), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Cases.gg's own item price.

Price

$128.89

Advertised RTP

89.50%

EV $115.35 from 18 items

Observed RTP, 30d

90.49%

22 openings, odds method

Variance

0.9×

of price², per opening

Tail share

27.0%

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

78.0%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

7 days

22 openings · below min

30 days

22 openings · below min

since tracking started

22 openings · below min

50.5%90.5%130.5%

Small sample. 22 openings and 5.9 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	0	—	—	—
7d	22	90.49%±39.2	—	odds
30d	22	90.49%±39.2	—	odds
All	22	90.49%±39.2	—	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items and odds18 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 22 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
Stanley x Barbie Legends Flowstate Quencher 40oz Tumbler (Set of 8) Multicolorother	1 in 100	$883	7.7%	0	0.2	—
Stanley x Starbucks Phillippines Exclusive Quencher 40oz Tumbler Blue (2023)other	1 in 50	$600	10.4%	0	0.4	—
Stanley x Target x Wicked Flowstate Quencher 40oz Tumbler Elphabaother	1 in 33	$391	10.2%	2	0.7	—
Stanley x LoveShackFancy Flowstate Quencher 40oz Tumbler Pink Minkother	1 in 33	$160	4.2%	1	0.7	—
Stanley x LoveShackFancy Flowstate Quencher 40oz Tumbler EverbloomingRosettesother	1 in 33	$140	3.6%	1	0.7	—
Stanley The Halloween Flowstate Quencher 40oz Tumbler Web Glowother	1 in 20	$140	6.1%	2	1.1	1.82×
Stanley x TYLA TYGER Flowstate Quencher 40oz Tumbler Bronzeother	1 in 20	$130	5.6%	2	1.1	1.82×
Stanley x Target Exclusive Valentines Day Flowstate Quencher 40oz Tumbler Ruby Heartsother	1 in 20	$122	5.3%	1	1.1	0.91×
Stanley x Leo Messi The GOAT Collection Classic Mate 8oz Mug Messi GOAT Pinkother	1 in 20	$120	5.2%	0	1.1	0.00×
Stanley Flowstate Quencher 40oz Tumbler Midnight Glitzother	1 in 20	$102	4.4%	2	1.1	1.82×
Stanley x Barbie Legends Flowstate Quencher 40oz Tumbler 90s Rockersother	1 in 20	$100	4.3%	0	1.1	0.00×
Stanley x Barbie Legends Flowstate Quencher 40oz Tumbler Barbie Iconother	1 in 20	$100	4.3%	0	1.1	0.00×
Stanley The Black Chroma Collection Flowstate Quencher 30oz Tumbler Black Chromaother	1 in 20	$93.15	4.0%	0	1.1	0.00×
Stanley x Leo Messi The GOAT Collection Iceflow 24oz Bottle With Flip Straw Lid Messi GOAT Pinkother	1 in 13	$76.00	4.9%	0	1.7	0.00×
Stanley The Neon Collection Adventure Stacking Beer 16oz Pint Neon Greenother	1 in 13	$73.00	4.7%	1	1.7	0.61×
Stanley Flowstate Quencher 40oz Tumbler Arctic Twistother	1 in 13	$60.00	3.9%	4	1.7	2.42×
Stanley The Lunar New Year Limited Edition Flowstate Quencher 30oz Tumbler Red Dragonother	12.5%	$52.00	5.6%	4	2.8	1.45×
Stanley Water Bottle Keychain Christmas Tree Ornament Strawberry Red Shimmerother	13.0%	$48.00	5.4%	2	2.9	0.70×

Values are Cases.gg's own item prices for physical goods; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from cases-gg:api/cases/details, 13 Nov, 02:20 UTC.