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Through the Years

A box on Cases.gg (classic), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Cases.gg's own item price.

Price
$0.40
Advertised RTP
88.74%
EV $0.35 from 9 items
Observed RTP, 30d
88.98%
4,062 openings, odds method
Variance
1.6×
of price², per opening
Tail share
18.0%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
72.0%
of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
24 hours
72.90%±16.58219 openings
7 days
88.72%±4.273,297 openings
30 days
88.98%±3.854,062 openings
since tracking started
88.98%±3.854,062 openings
55.5%74.5%93.5%

Windowsthe test per window

WindowOpeningsObservedDev.Method
24h21972.90%±16.6−1.9σodds
7d3,29788.72%±4.27−0.0σodds
30d4,06288.98%±3.85+0.1σodds
All4,06288.98%±3.85+0.1σodds
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items and odds9 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 4,062 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
ItemOddsValueEV shareObservedExpectedHot / cold
2025 New Years Glassesother1 in 40$1.8212.8%104101.61.02×
2024 New Years Glassesother1 in 33$1.6614.0%115121.90.94×
2023 New Years Glassesother1 in 20$1.3218.6%218203.11.07×
2020 New Years Glassesother1 in 13$1.0522.2%301304.60.99×
2019 New Years Glassesother10.0%$0.5114.4%409406.21.01×
2018 New Years Glassesother10.0%$0.3710.4%390406.20.96×
2016 New Years Glassesother15.0%$0.093.8%595609.30.98×
2010 New Years Glassesother20.0%$0.042.3%832812.41.02×
2009 New Years Glassesother27.0%$0.021.5%1,0981096.71.00×
Values are Cases.gg's own item prices for physical goods; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from cases-gg:api/cases/details, 11 Nov, 20:59 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.

Latest dropsnewest first

All Latest drops →
2009 New Years GlassesotherCle***ger$0.40$0.020.05x
2025 New Years GlassesotherCle***ger$0.40$1.824.55x
2018 New Years GlassesotherCle***ger$0.40$0.370.92x
2009 New Years Glassesother$0.40$0.020.05x
2010 New Years Glassesother$0.40$0.040.10x
2009 New Years Glassesother$0.40$0.020.05x
2010 New Years GlassesotherInithard$0.40$0.040.10x
2009 New Years Glassesother$0.40$0.020.05x
2020 New Years Glassesother$0.40$1.052.63x
2020 New Years Glassesother[email protected]$0.40$1.052.63x

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 88.74%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

CapturedPriceAdvertisedItems
2 Nov, 21:39 UTC$0.4088.74%9
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedother 100.0%best hit —