Valentine's
A box on Cases.gg (classic), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Cases.gg's own item price.
Price
$8.19
Advertised RTP
89.41%
EV $7.32 from 12 items
Observed RTP, 30d
74.71%
228 openings, odds method
Variance
1.9×
of price², per opening
Tail share
25.0%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
84.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items and odds12 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 228 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forever Rose Real 24K Goldother | 1 in 200 | $135 | 9.2% | 0 | 1.1 | 0.00× |
| Reeces Peanut Butter Hearts Chocolate 2lbother | 1 in 100 | $45.00 | 6.1% | 1 | 2.3 | 0.44× |
| Tabs Chocolate Squares for Couplesother | 1 in 80 | $30.00 | 5.1% | 2 | 2.9 | 0.70× |
| BestSelf Intimacy Deckother | 1 in 80 | $28.00 | 4.8% | 3 | 2.9 | 1.05× |
| MILLA Heart Hoop Earringsother | 1 in 80 | $25.00 | 4.3% | 3 | 2.9 | 1.05× |
| WHAT DO YOU MEME? The Ultimate Date Night Gameother | 1 in 40 | $20.00 | 6.8% | 8 | 5.7 | 1.40× |
| 2Pcs Valentine's Day Coffee Mugsother | 1 in 31 | $12.00 | 5.3% | 2 | 7.4 | 0.27× |
| Valentines Day Teddy Bearother | 1 in 20 | $10.00 | 6.8% | 9 | 11.4 | 0.79× |
| Valentine's Day Candleother | 1 in 11 | $7.00 | 8.6% | 11 | 20.5 | 0.54× |
| Adjustable Handcuffsother | 15.0% | $6.00 | 12.3% | 38 | 34.2 | 1.11× |
| Fluffy Heart Throw Pillowother | 20.0% | $5.20 | 14.2% | 45 | 45.6 | 0.99× |
| Two Souls One Heart Keychainother | 40.0% | $3.00 | 16.4% | 106 | 91.2 | 1.16× |
Values are Cases.gg's own item prices for physical goods; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
cases-gg:api/cases/details, 11 Nov, 20:59 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 89.41%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $8.19 | 89.41% | 12 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedother 100.0%best hit —