Wax & Tracks

A box on Cases.gg (classic), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Cases.gg's own item price.

Price

$26.26

Advertised RTP

89.48%

EV $23.50 from 18 items

Observed RTP, 30d

88.79%

2,076 openings, odds method

Variance

3.7×

of price², per opening

Tail share

12.6%

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

73.7%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

36 openings · below min

7 days

87.90%±8.871,806 openings

30 days

88.79%±8.282,076 openings

since tracking started

88.79%±8.282,076 openings

1.5%65.0%128.5%

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	36	64.93%±62.8	—	odds
7d	1,806	87.90%±8.87	−0.3σ	odds
30d	2,076	88.79%±8.28	−0.2σ	odds
All	2,076	88.79%±8.28	−0.2σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items and odds18 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 2,076 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
Sony PS-LX310BT Belt Drive Turntable: Fully Automatic Wireless Vinyl Record Playerother	1 in 200	$540	11.5%	8	10.4	0.77×
Audio-Technica AT-LP120XUSB-BK Direct-Drive Turntableother	1 in 400	$390	4.1%	3	5.2	0.58×
ANGELS HORN Vinyl Record Playerother	1 in 200	$320	6.8%	14	10.4	1.35×
Saiyin Bluetooth Bookshelf Speakers for Record Playerother	1 in 87	$100	4.9%	29	23.9	1.21×
Fosi Audio Box X2 Phono Preampother	1 in 63	$87.00	5.9%	35	33.2	1.05×
The Who with Orchestra Live at Wembley (Yellow, Orange, and Red Limited Edition)other	1 in 63	$77.00	5.2%	28	33.2	0.84×
Victrola Vintage 3-Speed Bluetooth Portable Suitcase Record Playerother	1 in 50	$60.00	5.1%	41	41.5	0.99×
Loud (Opaque Baby Pink Limited Edition)other	1 in 40	$45.00	4.8%	53	51.9	1.02×
Power to the People And the Beats - Greatest Hitsother	1 in 40	$42.00	4.5%	45	51.9	0.87×
Greatest Hits II Queenother	1 in 33	$39.60	5.1%	71	62.3	1.14×
The Dark Side of the Moonother	1 in 33	$35.20	4.5%	58	62.3	0.93×
Straight Outta Compton (Red Limited Edition)other	1 in 27	$33.00	5.3%	78	77.8	1.00×
Let Us Pray: Chapter Xother	1 in 25	$28.00	4.8%	78	83.0	0.94×
Thriller Vinylother	1 in 17	$22.00	5.6%	143	124.6	1.15×
100 Record Sleeves for Vinyl Recordother	1 in 17	$20.00	5.1%	123	124.6	0.99×
The Beatles – Abbey Road Vinylother	1 in 13	$18.00	5.7%	161	155.7	1.03×
Audio-Technica AT6011a Anti-Static Record Brushother	1 in 12	$15.00	5.2%	180	169.2	1.06×
Jam Universal Turntable Stylusother	46.0%	$3.00	5.9%	928	955.0	0.97×

Values are Cases.gg's own item prices for physical goods; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from cases-gg:api/cases/details, 12 Nov, 03:04 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

Sony PS-LX310BT Belt Drive Turntable: Fully Automatic Wireless Vinyl Record Playerother$26.26$54020.56x4d

Sony PS-LX310BT Belt Drive Turntable: Fully Automatic Wireless Vinyl Record Playerother$26.26$54020.56x5d

Sony PS-LX310BT Belt Drive Turntable: Fully Automatic Wireless Vinyl Record Playerother$26.26$54020.56x6d

Sony PS-LX310BT Belt Drive Turntable: Fully Automatic Wireless Vinyl Record Playerother$26.26$54020.56x7d

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

Power to the People And the Beats - Greatest Hitsother$26.26$42.001.60x4h

Jam Universal Turntable Stylusother$26.26$3.000.11x4h

Audio-Technica AT6011a Anti-Static Record BrushotherWitty Grizzly$26.26$15.000.57x4h

Jam Universal Turntable Stylusother$26.26$3.000.11x4h

Loud (Opaque Baby Pink Limited Edition)other$26.26$45.001.71x4h

The Beatles – Abbey Road Vinylother$26.26$18.000.69x4h

Jam Universal Turntable StylusotherWitty Grizzly$26.26$3.000.11x4h

Jam Universal Turntable Stylusother$26.26$3.000.11x4h

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 89.48%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
2 Nov, 21:39 UTC	$26.26	89.48%	18

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedother 100.0%best hit $540 (20.56x)