Wheelie

A box on Cases.gg (classic), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Cases.gg's own item price.

Price

$96.72

Advertised RTP

89.49%

EV $86.56 from 18 items

Observed RTP, 30d

69.09%

270 openings, odds method

Variance

15.9×

of price², per opening

Tail share

1 in 47

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

87.3%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

6 openings · below min

7 days

210 openings · below min

30 days

69.09%±47.49270 openings

since tracking started

69.09%±47.49270 openings

-0.5%177.5%355.5%

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	6	36.44%±318.6	—	odds
7d	210	71.49%±53.9	—	odds
30d	270	69.09%±47.5	−0.8σ	odds
All	270	69.09%±47.5	−0.8σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items and odds18 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 270 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
Sur-Ron Xother	1 in 250	$4,840	22.4%	0	1.1	0.00×
X-PRO 250cc 6 Speed EFI Fuel Injection Dirt Bikeother	1 in 133	$2,342	20.3%	1	2.0	0.49×
Razor MX650 Dirt Rocket Electric-Powered Dirt Bikeother	1 in 100	$1,056	12.2%	4	2.7	1.48×
Razor MX400 Dirt Rocket – 14 MPH (22 KMH) Off-Road Electric Dirt Bikeother	1 in 100	$720	8.3%	1	2.7	0.37×
Progressive Suspension 412-4065B Black Anodized Finish 13" Standard Low Buck Factory Replacement Rear Suspension Shockother	1 in 100	$375	4.3%	5	2.7	1.85×
ScorpionEXO Covert FX Full Face Adult Motorcycle Helmetother	1 in 100	$350	4.0%	6	2.7	2.22×
Motorcycle Airbag Vestother	1 in 40	$156	4.5%	9	6.8	1.33×
KEMIMOTO Motorcycle Saddlebagother	1 in 40	$145	4.2%	9	6.8	1.33×
VSYSTO WiFi Motorcycle Dash Camother	1 in 40	$115	3.3%	3	6.8	0.44×
Alpinestars Men's SMX-1 Air v2 Motorcycle Riding Glovesother	1 in 40	$85.00	2.5%	11	6.8	1.63×
Motorcycle Protective Jacket Full Body Armorother	1 in 40	$64.00	1.8%	6	6.8	0.89×
Motorcycle Leather Bootsother	1 in 40	$50.00	1.4%	6	6.8	0.89×
Motorcycle Backpack,Waterproof Helmet Backpackother	1 in 20	$39.59	2.3%	7	13.5	0.52×
Motorcycle Tool Roll Bagother	1 in 20	$30.00	1.7%	11	13.5	0.81×
BATFOX Dirt Bike ATV Gogglesother	1 in 20	$18.39	1.1%	9	13.5	0.67×
ATV Quad Four Wheeler Mudding Shirtother	10.0%	$17.99	2.1%	32	27.0	1.19×
Motorcycle Balaclava Face Maskother	15.0%	$10.00	1.7%	29	40.5	0.72×
Keychain Tag for Motorcyclesother	39.9%	$3.89	1.8%	121	107.6	1.12×

Values are Cases.gg's own item prices for physical goods; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from cases-gg:api/cases/details, 11 Nov, 14:54 UTC.