Price
$333.02
Advertised RTP
89.50%
EV $298.05 from 13 items
Observed RTP, 30d
28.86%
357 openings, odds method
Variance
76.7×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 250
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
97.5%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Small sample. 357 openings and 1.4 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items and odds13 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 357 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Audi TTother | 1 in 1,000 | $61K | 20.5% | 0 | 0.4 | — |
| 2024 Ford Maverick Lariatother | 1 in 1,000 | $46.2K | 15.5% | 0 | 0.4 | — |
| 2024 Mazda Miata Sportother | 1 in 1,000 | $34.1K | 11.4% | 0 | 0.4 | — |
| 2024 Kia Soulother | 1 in 1,000 | $26.8K | 9.0% | 0 | 0.4 | — |
| 2019 Ford Fiestaother | 1 in 1,000 | $19.8K | 6.6% | 0 | 0.4 | — |
| Ford Fusionother | 1 in 400 | $10K | 8.4% | 1 | 0.9 | — |
| Louis Vuitton Suitcase Pegase Business NM Monogram 55 Brownother | 1 in 400 | $7,458 | 6.3% | 0 | 0.9 | — |
| Dior Safari Messenger Bag Dior Oblique Jacquard Beige/Blackother | 1 in 400 | $4,320 | 3.6% | 1 | 0.9 | — |
| Saint Laurent Cassandra Chain Shoulder Bag Blackother | 1 in 400 | $2,760 | 2.3% | 1 | 0.9 | — |
| Balenciaga Navy Cabas Tote Bag XS Light Beige/Blackother | 1 in 200 | $1,350 | 2.3% | 2 | 1.8 | 1.12× |
| Goyard Necessaire Bag Ecruother | 1 in 200 | $710 | 1.2% | 1 | 1.8 | 0.56× |
| Gold Crown Stickerother | 47.5% | $60.00 | 9.6% | 170 | 169.6 | 1.00× |
| Cash Stickerother | 50.0% | $20.00 | 3.4% | 181 | 178.5 | 1.01× |
Values are Cases.gg's own item prices for physical goods; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
cases-gg:api/cases/details, 11 Nov, 08:49 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 89.50%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $333 | 89.50% | 13 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedother 100.0%best hit $10K (30.03x)