Winding Down
A box on Cases.gg (classic), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Cases.gg's own item price.
Price
$2.67
Advertised RTP
89.36%
EV $2.39 from 9 items
Observed RTP, 30d
80.75%
5,531 openings, odds method
Variance
63.6×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 200
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
97.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items and odds9 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 5,531 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Casio G-Shock Tiffany Blueother | 1 in 1,000 | $400 | 16.8% | 3 | 5.5 | 0.54× |
| Casio G-Shock DW-D5600TD-3other | 1 in 400 | $250 | 26.2% | 13 | 13.8 | 0.94× |
| Apple Watch SE (2nd Gen) [GPS 40mm], Midnight Aluminumother | 1 in 667 | $235 | 14.8% | 9 | 8.3 | 1.08× |
| Casio G-Shock LTP-V300D-2Aother | 1 in 250 | $89.00 | 14.9% | 21 | 22.1 | 0.95× |
| Casio G-Shock MTP-1302D-7A1Vother | 1 in 250 | $72.00 | 12.1% | 20 | 22.1 | 0.90× |
| SpongeBob Watchother | 1 in 200 | $25.00 | 5.2% | 35 | 27.7 | 1.27× |
| Amazon Essentials Men's Easy to Read Strap Watchother | 1 in 200 | $23.00 | 4.8% | 23 | 27.7 | 0.83× |
| Casio MQ24 Seriesother | 1 in 143 | $14.99 | 4.4% | 36 | 38.7 | 0.93× |
| Watch Crownother | 97.0% | $0.02 | 0.8% | 5,371 | 5365.1 | 1.00× |
Values are Cases.gg's own item prices for physical goods; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
cases-gg:api/cases/details, 11 Nov, 08:49 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 89.36%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $2.67 | 89.36% | 9 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedother 100.0%best hit $400 (149.8x)