Winter Royale
A box on Cases.gg (classic), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Cases.gg's own item price.
Price
$50.55
Advertised RTP
89.50%
EV $45.24 from 8 items
Observed RTP, 30d
104.55%
289 openings, odds method
Variance
4.5×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 16
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
89.9%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items and odds8 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 289 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fear of God Athletics Crossbody Bagother | 1 in 100 | $700 | 15.5% | 2 | 2.9 | 0.69× |
| Palm Angels Teddy Bear T-shirt Black (US L)other | 1 in 67 | $600 | 19.9% | 7 | 4.3 | 1.61× |
| Supreme Leather Waist Bag Redother | 1 in 28 | $250 | 19.9% | 17 | 10.4 | 1.63× |
| $100 Steam Gift Cardother | 1 in 25 | $105 | 9.3% | 13 | 11.6 | 1.12× |
| VALORANT Basketball Shortsother | 16.5% | $50.00 | 18.2% | 36 | 47.7 | 0.75× |
| SpongeBob Watchother | 18.4% | $25.00 | 10.2% | 53 | 53.2 | 1.00× |
| Jujutsu Kaisen 0 Paperbackother | 21.0% | $7.10 | 3.3% | 61 | 60.7 | 1.01× |
| Supreme Burberry Box Logo Stickerother | 34.0% | $5.00 | 3.8% | 100 | 98.3 | 1.02× |
Values are Cases.gg's own item prices for physical goods; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
cases-gg:api/cases/details, 11 Nov, 14:54 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 89.50%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $50.55 | 89.50% | 8 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedother 100.0%best hit $700 (13.85x)