Yaris to Urus
A box on Cases.gg (classic), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Cases.gg's own item price.
Price
$14,867.84
Advertised RTP
89.50%
EV $13,306.71 from 18 items
Observed RTP, 30d
16.07%
10 openings, odds method
Variance
6.2×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 23
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
84.9%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Small sample. 10 openings and 0.4 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items and odds18 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 10 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 Lamborghini Urusother | 1 in 303 | $306K | 7.6% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| 2022 Mercedes-Benz S 580 BRABUSother | 1 in 200 | $240K | 9.0% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| 2018 Audi R8 V10 Plus Spyderother | 1 in 133 | $185K | 10.4% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| Audi RS Q8other | 1 in 125 | $150K | 9.0% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| 2024 BMW i5 M60other | 1 in 100 | $109K | 8.2% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| Tesla Model S Plaidother | 1 in 100 | $101K | 7.6% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| 2021 Porsche Taycan 4Sother | 1 in 100 | $91.2K | 6.9% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| 2024 Mercedes-Benz Sprinter Cargo Van 2500other | 1 in 100 | $79.5K | 6.0% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| 2013 Porsche 911 Carreraother | 1 in 100 | $68.6K | 5.2% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| 2024 BMW 3 Series 330Iother | 1 in 100 | $60K | 4.5% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| 2024 Chevrolet Camaro LTother | 1 in 80 | $49.5K | 4.6% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| 2017 Volkswagen Golf GTI Sother | 1 in 67 | $22.7K | 2.6% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| 2019 Ford Fiestaother | 1 in 50 | $19.8K | 3.0% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| 2016 Mercedes-Benz C-Class C 300other | 1 in 50 | $17.9K | 2.7% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| 2007 Volkswagen Sharanother | 19.8% | $2,750 | 4.1% | 2 | 2.0 | 1.01× |
| 2004 BMW 330dother | 20.0% | $2,700 | 4.1% | 5 | 2.0 | 2.50× |
| Toyota Yaris 2008other | 20.1% | $2,000 | 3.0% | 2 | 2.0 | 1.00× |
| Toyota Yaris 2002other | 25.0% | $900 | 1.7% | 1 | 2.5 | 0.40× |
Values are Cases.gg's own item prices for physical goods; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
cases-gg:api/cases/details, 11 Nov, 20:59 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 89.50%
No data in this window
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $14.9K | 89.50% | 18 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedother 100.0%best hit $2,750 (0.18x)