Yu-Gi-Oh Collector

A box on Cases.gg (classic), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Cases.gg's own item price.

Price

$183.06

Advertised RTP

89.50%

EV $163.84 from 18 items

Observed RTP, 30d

80.22%

97 openings, odds method

Variance

25.8×

of price², per opening

Tail share

1 in 61

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

93.5%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

7 days

73 openings · below min

30 days

97 openings · below min

since tracking started

97 openings · below min

-0.5%108.3%217.0%

Small sample. 97 openings and 1.6 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	0	—	—	—
7d	73	99.97%±116.5	—	odds
30d	97	80.22%±101.1	—	odds
All	97	80.22%±101.1	—	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items and odds18 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 97 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
2002 Yu-Gi-Oh! Metal Raiders 1st Edition Gate Guardian #MRD-000 PSA 10 GEM MINTother	1 in 2,000	$28.8K	8.8%	0	0.0	—
Retro Pack 2 Boxother	1 in 286	$7,920	16.9%	0	0.3	—
The Lost Millennium Booster Boxother	1 in 200	$5,000	15.3%	2	0.5	—
Dark Revelation 2 Booster Boxother	1 in 133	$3,100	14.2%	0	0.7	—
2009 Yu-Gi-Oh! Retro Pack 2 Booster Pack PSA 10 GEM MINTother	1 in 125	$2,400	11.7%	0	0.8	—
2002 Yu-Gi-Oh! Legend Of Blue-Eyes 1st Ed Gaia The Fierce Knight #LOB-006 PSA 9other	1 in 100	$780	4.8%	0	1.0	—
2008 Yu-Gi-Oh! PTDN 1st Ed Ultimate Rare Beginning Of The End #PTDN-EN053 PSA 10other	1 in 100	$540	3.3%	0	1.0	—
Collector's Tins 2009: Majestic Star Dragonother	1 in 50	$350	4.3%	2	1.9	1.03×
Turbo Pack Boosterother	1 in 20	$130	4.0%	6	4.9	1.24×
Starter Deck: Kaibaother	1 in 20	$115	3.5%	6	4.9	1.24×
25th Anniversary Rarity Collection Booster Boxother	1 in 15	$89.00	3.5%	5	6.3	0.79×
Battles of Legend: Terminal Revenge Booster Boxother	1 in 13	$60.00	2.9%	8	7.8	1.03×
5D's Starter Deck 2009other	10.0%	$35.00	2.1%	14	9.7	1.44×
2020 Tin of Lost Memoriesother	10.0%	$30.00	1.8%	7	9.7	0.72×
Funko Pop Animation: Yu-Gi-Oh! - Dark Magician Girl Collectible Figureother	11.6%	$15.00	1.1%	10	11.2	0.89×
Starter Deck: Kaiba Reloadedother	12.5%	$10.00	0.8%	10	12.1	0.82×
2-Player Starter Setother	12.5%	$9.00	0.7%	16	12.1	1.32×
Starter Deck: Link Strikeother	12.5%	$5.00	0.4%	11	12.1	0.91×

Values are Cases.gg's own item prices for physical goods; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from cases-gg:api/cases/details, 12 Nov, 03:04 UTC.