0.4 AK-47s
A case on Chicken.gg (official), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Chicken.gg's own item price converted from Chicken coins at the rate on the site page.
Price
$0.21
0.42 coins
Advertised RTP
88.84%
EV $0.19 from 8 items
Observed RTP, 30d
76.16%
16.2K openings, odds method
Variance
274.5×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 11
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
91.2%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values8 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 16.2K openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AK-47 | Case Hardened (Factory New)weapon · classified | 1 in 10,000 | $285 570 coins | 15.3% | 0 | 1.6 | 0.00× |
| AK-47 | Vulcan (Field-Tested)weapon · covert | 1 in 10,000 | $162 323 coins | 8.7% | 1 | 1.6 | 0.62× |
| AK-47 | Frontside Misty (Factory New)weapon · classified | 1 in 2,500 | $40.95 81.9 coins | 8.8% | 6 | 6.5 | 0.92× |
| AK-47 | Red Laminate (Field-Tested)weapon · classified | 1 in 2,000 | $26.89 53.78 coins | 7.2% | 11 | 8.1 | 1.36× |
| AK-47 | Neon Rider (Field-Tested)weapon · covert | 1 in 1,667 | $21.58 43.15 coins | 6.9% | 12 | 9.7 | 1.23× |
| AK-47 | Slate (Field-Tested)weapon · Mythical | 1 in 12 | $1.07 2.13 coins | 49.5% | 1,432 | 1407.4 | 1.02× |
| Five-SeveN | Forest Night (Field-Tested)weapon · consumer | 45.0% | $0.01 0.02 coins | 2.4% | 7,433 | 7304.9 | 1.02× |
| FAMAS | Colony (Field-Tested)weapon · consumer | 46.2% | <$0.01 0.01 coins | 1.2% | 7,338 | 7493.2 | 0.98× |
Values are Chicken.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
chicken:cases/get-cases, 11 Nov, 20:05 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
AK-47 | Red Laminate (Field-Tested)weapon · classifiedToxicRaven7045$0.210.42 coins$26.8953.78 coins128.0x
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 88.84%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $0.21 | 88.84% | 8 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedclassified 0.1%covert 0.1%Mythical 8.7%consumer 91.2%best hit $162 (769.6x)