1% 5k top item

A case on Chicken.gg, first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Chicken.gg's own item price converted from Chicken coins at the rate on the site page.

Price
$5.00
10 coins
Advertised RTP
—
no catalog
Observed RTP, 30d
38.52%
559 openings, sample method
Variance
—
needs odds
Tail share
—
needs odds
Below price
—
needs odds

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandoutside bandsmall sample
24 hours
60 openings · below min
7 days
477 openings · below min
30 days
559 openings · below min
since tracking started
559 openings · below min
-0.5%44.3%89.0%

Small sample. 559 openings: below the 1,000 the sample method needs, so no verdict.

Windowsthe test per window

WindowOpeningsObservedDev.Method
24h600.10%±0.00—sample
7d47724.02%±41.5—sample
30d55938.52%±50.0—sample
All55938.52%±50.0—sample
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and valuesnone published

No catalogChicken.gg publishes no catalog; the case is known from the drops that named it.
Values are Chicken.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

★ Ursus Knife | Fade (Factory New)knife · rare$5.0010 coins$5031,007 coins100.7x
★ Ursus Knife | Fade (Factory New)knife · rare$5.0010 coins$5031,007 coins100.7x

Latest dropsnewest first

P250 | Sand Dune (Well-Worn)weapon · consumer$5.0010 coins<$0.010.01 coins0.00x
P250 | Sand Dune (Well-Worn)weapon · consumer$5.0010 coins<$0.010.01 coins0.00x
P250 | Sand Dune (Well-Worn)weapon · consumer$5.0010 coins<$0.010.01 coins0.00x
P250 | Sand Dune (Well-Worn)weapon · consumer$5.0010 coins<$0.010.01 coins0.00x
P250 | Sand Dune (Well-Worn)weapon · consumer$5.0010 coins<$0.010.01 coins0.00x
P250 | Sand Dune (Well-Worn)weapon · consumer$5.0010 coins<$0.010.01 coins0.00x
P250 | Sand Dune (Well-Worn)weapon · consumer$5.0010 coins<$0.010.01 coins0.00x
P250 | Sand Dune (Well-Worn)weapon · consumer$5.0010 coins<$0.010.01 coins0.00x
P250 | Sand Dune (Well-Worn)weapon · consumer$5.0010 coins<$0.010.01 coins0.00x
P250 | Sand Dune (Well-Worn)weapon · consumer$5.0010 coins<$0.010.01 coins0.00x

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, daily

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

CapturedPriceAdvertisedItems
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedbest hit $503 (100.7x)