1% AWP
A case on Chicken.gg (official), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Chicken.gg's own item price converted from Chicken coins at the rate on the site page.
Price
$7.69
15.37 coins
Advertised RTP
89.98%
EV $6.91 from 7 items
Observed RTP, 30d
96.34%
36.3K openings, odds method
Variance
279.7×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 417
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
99.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values7 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 36.3K openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AWP | Dragon Lore (Factory New)weapon · covert | 1 in 10,000 | $9,318 18,637 coins | 13.5% | 7 | 3.6 | 1.93× |
| AWP | Medusa (Factory New)weapon · covert | 1 in 3,333 | $4,198 8,395 coins | 18.2% | 11 | 10.9 | 1.01× |
| StatTrak™ AWP | Oni Taiji (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · covert | 1 in 500 | $721 1,442 coins | 20.9% | 55 | 72.5 | 0.76× |
| StatTrak™ AWP | Containment Breach (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · covert | 1 in 500 | $639 1,278 coins | 18.5% | 66 | 72.5 | 0.91× |
| Souvenir AWP | Pink DDPAT (Factory New)Souvenir · weapon · Restricted | 1 in 357 | $424 847 coins | 17.2% | 101 | 101.6 | 0.99× |
| StatTrak™ AWP | Graphite (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · Classified | 1 in 357 | $290 580 coins | 11.7% | 111 | 101.6 | 1.09× |
| FAMAS | Colony (Field-Tested)weapon · consumer | 99.0% | <$0.01 0.01 coins | 0.1% | 35,919 | 35907.3 | 1.00× |
Values are Chicken.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
chicken:cases/get-cases, 11 Nov, 08:05 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
Latest dropsnewest first
StatTrak™ AWP | Graphite (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · Classified$7.6915.37 coins$290580 coins37.75x
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 89.98%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $7.69 | 89.98% | 7 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert 0.4%Restricted 0.3%Classified 0.3%consumer 99.0%best hit $9,318 (1,213x)