1% Flasher

A case on Chicken.gg (official), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Chicken.gg's own item price converted from Chicken coins at the rate on the site page.

Price

$15.10

30.2 coins

Advertised RTP

89.97%

EV $13.59 from 10 items

Observed RTP, 30d

84.22%

5,373 openings, odds method

Variance

83.8×

of price², per opening

Tail share

1 in 200

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

99.0%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

512 openings · below min

7 days

78.26%±27.944,123 openings

30 days

84.22%±24.475,373 openings

since tracking started

84.22%±24.475,373 openings

49.5%143.0%236.5%

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	512	156.66%±79.3	—	odds
7d	4,123	78.26%±27.9	−0.8σ	odds
30d	5,373	84.22%±24.5	−0.5σ	odds
All	5,373	84.22%±24.5	−0.5σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values10 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 5,373 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
Souvenir AWP \| Desert Hydra (Minimal Wear)Souvenir · weapon · covert	1 in 400	$1,661 3,323 coins	30.6%	11	13.4	0.82×
MP9 \| Wild Lily (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 400	$1,638 3,277 coins	30.1%	13	13.4	0.97×
★ Moto Gloves \| Smoke Out (Factory New)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 400	$1,125 2,251 coins	20.7%	13	13.4	0.97×
Souvenir AWP \| Desert Hydra (Battle-Scarred)Souvenir · weapon · covert	1 in 400	$1,002 2,005 coins	18.4%	14	13.4	1.04×
AUG \| Sweeper (Minimal Wear)weapon · Common	16.0%	$0.03 0.05 coins	0.0%	897	859.7	1.04×
CZ75-Auto \| Distressed (Field-Tested)weapon · #4b69ff	16.0%	$0.03 0.05 coins	0.0%	853	859.7	0.99×
MP9 \| Orange Peel (Field-Tested)weapon · industrial	16.0%	$0.03 0.05 coins	0.0%	858	859.7	1.00×
MP5-SD \| Dirt Drop (Field-Tested)weapon · Consumer Grade	17.0%	$0.01 0.03 coins	0.0%	898	913.4	0.98×
Dual Berettas \| Colony (Field-Tested)weapon · #777777	17.0%	$0.01 0.02 coins	0.0%	922	913.4	1.01×
P2000 \| Gnarled (Field-Tested)weapon · #4b69ff	17.0%	<$0.01 0.01 coins	0.0%	894	913.4	0.98×

Values are Chicken.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from chicken:cases/get-cases, 11 Nov, 14:05 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

Souvenir AWP | Desert Hydra (Minimal Wear)Souvenir · weapon · covert$15.1030.2 coins$1,6613,323 coins110.0x18h

Souvenir AWP | Desert Hydra (Minimal Wear)Souvenir · weapon · covertEliteLynx4233$15.1030.2 coins$1,6613,323 coins110.0x20h

Souvenir AWP | Desert Hydra (Minimal Wear)Souvenir · weapon · covert$15.1030.2 coins$1,6613,323 coins110.0x1d

Souvenir AWP | Desert Hydra (Minimal Wear)Souvenir · weapon · covert$15.1030.2 coins$1,6613,323 coins110.0x4d

Souvenir AWP | Desert Hydra (Minimal Wear)Souvenir · weapon · covert$15.1030.2 coins$1,6613,323 coins110.0x5d

Souvenir AWP | Desert Hydra (Minimal Wear)Souvenir · weapon · covert$15.1030.2 coins$1,6613,323 coins110.0x6d

Souvenir AWP | Desert Hydra (Minimal Wear)Souvenir · weapon · covert$15.1030.2 coins$1,6613,323 coins110.0x7d

Souvenir AWP | Desert Hydra (Minimal Wear)Souvenir · weapon · covert$15.1030.2 coins$1,6613,323 coins110.0x8d

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

MP5-SD | Dirt Drop (Field-Tested)weapon · Consumer Grade$15.1030.2 coins$0.010.03 coins0.00x1h

CZ75-Auto | Distressed (Field-Tested)weapon · #4b69ff$15.1030.2 coins$0.030.05 coins0.00x1h

Dual Berettas | Colony (Field-Tested)weapon · #777777$15.1030.2 coins$0.010.02 coins0.00x1h

MP9 | Orange Peel (Field-Tested)weapon · industrial$15.1030.2 coins$0.030.05 coins0.00x1h

CZ75-Auto | Distressed (Field-Tested)weapon · #4b69ff$15.1030.2 coins$0.030.05 coins0.00x1h

P2000 | Gnarled (Field-Tested)weapon · #4b69ffprudent$15.1030.2 coins<$0.010.01 coins0.00x1h

P2000 | Gnarled (Field-Tested)weapon · #4b69ff$15.1030.2 coins<$0.010.01 coins0.00x1h

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 89.97%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
2 Nov, 21:39 UTC	$15.10	89.97%	10

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedcovert 0.5%classified 0.3%extraordinary 0.3%Common 16.0%#4b69ff 33.0%industrial 16.0%Consumer Grade 17.0%#777777 17.0%best hit $1,661 (110.0x)