1 In A Million

A case on Chicken.gg (official), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Chicken.gg's own item price converted from Chicken coins at the rate on the site page.

Price

$0.44

0.87 coins

Advertised RTP

89.60%

EV $0.39 from 18 items

Observed RTP, 30d

88.66%

27.2K openings, odds method

Variance

72.2×

of price², per opening

Tail share

1 in 41

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

88.6%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

77.66%±31.312,830 openings

7 days

90.11%±10.8723.5K openings

30 days

88.66%±10.1027.2K openings

since tracking started

88.66%±10.1027.2K openings

45.5%77.5%109.5%

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	2,830	77.66%±31.3	−0.7σ	odds
7d	23.5K	90.11%±10.9	+0.1σ	odds
30d	27.2K	88.66%±10.1	−0.2σ	odds
All	27.2K	88.66%±10.1	−0.2σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values18 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 27.2K openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
★ Bayonet \| Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby)knife · covert · Ruby	1 in 1,000,000	$3,107 6,214 coins	0.8%	0	0.0	—
USP-S \| Orange Anolis (Minimal Wear)weapon · Mythical	1 in 10,000	$61.68 123 coins	1.6%	2	2.7	0.73×
Five-SeveN \| Candy Apple (Factory New)weapon · Industrial Grade	1 in 10,000	$56.39 113 coins	1.4%	5	2.7	1.84×
UMP-45 \| Crime Scene (Factory New)weapon · violet	1 in 10,000	$54.87 110 coins	1.4%	4	2.7	1.47×
Glock-18 \| Bullet Queen (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 2,000	$31.27 62.54 coins	4.0%	14	13.6	1.03×
USP-S \| Kill Confirmed (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 2,000	$29.87 59.74 coins	3.8%	12	13.6	0.88×
M4A4 \| Cyber Security (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 2,000	$29.36 58.71 coins	3.8%	10	13.6	0.73×
MAC-10 \| Propaganda (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 2,000	$27.81 55.62 coins	3.6%	17	13.6	1.25×
Desert Eagle \| Code Red (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 1,000	$13.79 27.57 coins	3.5%	30	27.2	1.10×
AK-47 \| Orbit Mk01 (Factory New)weapon · restricted	1 in 1,000	$13.47 26.94 coins	3.5%	28	27.2	1.03×
USP-S \| Cortex (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 400	$6.79 13.57 coins	4.4%	59	68.0	0.87×
MAC-10 \| Nuclear Garden (Factory New)weapon · mil spec	1 in 400	$6.71 13.42 coins	4.3%	69	68.0	1.01×
CZ75-Auto \| Xiangliu (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 200	$6.11 12.21 coins	7.8%	142	136.1	1.04×
MP9 \| Food Chain (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 100	$5.23 10.45 coins	13.4%	250	272.2	0.92×
UMP-45 \| Momentum (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 50	$2.78 5.56 coins	14.3%	549	544.4	1.01×
SSG 08 \| Turbo Peek (Field-Tested)weapon · #d32ee6	1 in 50	$2.72 5.44 coins	14.0%	540	544.4	0.99×
M4A4 \| Evil Daimyo (Field-Tested)weapon · Mythical	1 in 20	$1.04 2.08 coins	13.3%	1,316	1361.0	0.97×
P2000 \| Gnarled (Field-Tested)weapon · #4b69ff	88.6%	<$0.01 0.01 coins	1.1%	24,173	24108.7	1.00×

Values are Chicken.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from chicken:cases/get-cases, 11 Nov, 20:05 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

USP-S | Orange Anolis (Minimal Wear)weapon · Mythical$0.430.87 coins$61.68123 coins141.8x6d

Five-SeveN | Candy Apple (Factory New)weapon · Industrial Grade$0.430.87 coins$56.39113 coins129.6x1d

Five-SeveN | Candy Apple (Factory New)weapon · Industrial Grade$0.430.87 coins$56.39113 coins129.6x3d

Five-SeveN | Candy Apple (Factory New)weapon · Industrial Grade$0.430.87 coins$56.39113 coins129.6x6d

UMP-45 | Crime Scene (Factory New)weapon · violetElporto91$0.430.87 coins$54.87110 coins126.1x1d

UMP-45 | Crime Scene (Factory New)weapon · violet$0.430.87 coins$54.87110 coins126.1x3d

UMP-45 | Crime Scene (Factory New)weapon · violet$0.430.87 coins$54.87110 coins126.1x4d

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

P2000 | Gnarled (Field-Tested)weapon · #4b69ff$0.430.87 coins<$0.010.01 coins0.01x45m

P2000 | Gnarled (Field-Tested)weapon · #4b69ffvahidka023$0.430.87 coins<$0.010.01 coins0.01x45m

P2000 | Gnarled (Field-Tested)weapon · #4b69ff$0.430.87 coins<$0.010.01 coins0.01x45m

M4A4 | Evil Daimyo (Field-Tested)weapon · Mythical$0.430.87 coins$1.042.08 coins2.39x45m

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 89.60%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
2 Nov, 21:39 UTC	$0.43	89.60%	18

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedcovert 0.2%Mythical 5.0%Industrial Grade 0.0%violet 0.0%classified 3.9%restricted 0.1%mil spec 0.3%#d32ee6 2.0%#4b69ff 88.6%best hit $61.68 (141.8x)