1% JACKPOT

A case on Chicken.gg (official), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Chicken.gg's own item price converted from Chicken coins at the rate on the site page.

Price

$33.50

66.99 coins

Advertised RTP

90.00%

EV $30.14 from 16 items

Observed RTP, 30d

81.10%

2,803 openings, odds method

Variance

81.3×

of price², per opening

Tail share

1 in 200

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

99.0%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

453 openings · below min

7 days

73.47%±35.522,475 openings

30 days

81.10%±33.382,803 openings

since tracking started

81.10%±33.382,803 openings

-0.5%69.8%140.0%

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	453	56.50%±83.0	—	odds
7d	2,475	73.47%±35.5	−0.9σ	odds
30d	2,803	81.10%±33.4	−0.5σ	odds
All	2,803	81.10%±33.4	−0.5σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values16 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 2,803 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
Charm \| Baby Karat Tcharm · #eb4b4b	1 in 400	$3,485 6,970 coins	28.9%	7	7.0	1.00×
★ StatTrak™ Bayonet \| Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire)StatTrak · knife · covert · Sapphire	1 in 400	$3,187 6,373 coins	26.4%	6	7.0	0.86×
★ StatTrak™ Bayonet \| Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl)StatTrak · knife · #EB4B4B · Black Pearl	1 in 400	$2,845 5,691 coins	23.6%	7	7.0	1.00×
Sticker \| Ninjas in Pyjamas (Holo) \| Katowice 2014sticker · remarkable	1 in 400	$2,539 5,078 coins	21.1%	5	7.0	0.71×
P2000 \| Gnarled (Field-Tested)weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 13	<$0.01 0.01 coins	0.0%	209	224.2	0.93×
FAMAS \| Colony (Field-Tested)weapon · consumer	1 in 13	<$0.01 0.01 coins	0.0%	222	224.2	0.99×
FAMAS \| Meow 36 (Field-Tested)weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 13	<$0.01 0.01 coins	0.0%	229	224.2	1.02×
G3SG1 \| VariCamo (Field-Tested)weapon · industrial	1 in 13	<$0.01 0.01 coins	0.0%	242	224.2	1.08×
MAG-7 \| Rust Coat (Factory New)weapon · Consumer Grade	1 in 13	<$0.01 0.01 coins	0.0%	244	224.2	1.09×
P250 \| Sand Dune (Well-Worn)weapon · consumer	1 in 13	<$0.01 0.01 coins	0.0%	243	224.2	1.08×
XM1014 \| Blue Spruce (Field-Tested)weapon · consumer	1 in 13	<$0.01 0.01 coins	0.0%	220	224.2	0.98×
AUG \| Sweeper (Factory New)weapon · Common	1 in 13	<$0.01 0.01 coins	0.0%	205	224.2	0.91×
MP9 \| Black Sand (Field-Tested)weapon · milspec	1 in 13	<$0.01 0.01 coins	0.0%	234	224.2	1.04×
SG 553 \| Aloha (Field-Tested)weapon · blue	1 in 11	<$0.01 0.01 coins	0.0%	249	252.3	0.99×
SG 553 \| Army Sheen (Factory New)weapon · consumer	1 in 11	<$0.01 0.01 coins	0.0%	260	252.3	1.03×
P2000 \| Granite Marbleized (Field-Tested)weapon · industrial	1 in 11	<$0.01 0.01 coins	0.0%	221	252.3	0.88×

Values are Chicken.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from chicken:cases/get-cases, 11 Nov, 14:05 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

Charm | Baby Karat Tcharm · #eb4b4b$33.5066.99 coins$3,4856,970 coins104.0x1d

Charm | Baby Karat Tcharm · #eb4b4b$33.5066.99 coins$3,4856,970 coins104.0x2d

Charm | Baby Karat Tcharm · #eb4b4b$33.5066.99 coins$3,4856,970 coins104.0x6d

Charm | Baby Karat Tcharm · #eb4b4b$33.5066.99 coins$3,4856,970 coins104.0x8d

★ StatTrak™ Bayonet | Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire)StatTrak · knife · covert · Sapphire$33.5066.99 coins$3,1876,373 coins95.14x17h

★ StatTrak™ Bayonet | Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire)StatTrak · knife · covert · Sapphire$33.5066.99 coins$3,1876,373 coins95.14x1d

★ StatTrak™ Bayonet | Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire)StatTrak · knife · covert · Sapphire$33.5066.99 coins$3,1876,373 coins95.14x4d

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

P2000 | Granite Marbleized (Field-Tested)weapon · industrial$33.5066.99 coins<$0.010.01 coins0.00x2m

P2000 | Gnarled (Field-Tested)weapon · #4b69ff$33.5066.99 coins<$0.010.01 coins0.00x2m

FAMAS | Meow 36 (Field-Tested)weapon · #4b69ff$33.5066.99 coins<$0.010.01 coins0.00x2m

P250 | Sand Dune (Well-Worn)weapon · consumer$33.5066.99 coins<$0.010.01 coins0.00x2m

XM1014 | Blue Spruce (Field-Tested)weapon · consumer$33.5066.99 coins<$0.010.01 coins0.00x2m

MP9 | Black Sand (Field-Tested)weapon · milspec$33.5066.99 coins<$0.010.01 coins0.00x2m

SG 553 | Army Sheen (Factory New)weapon · consumer$33.5066.99 coins<$0.010.01 coins0.00x2m

MP9 | Black Sand (Field-Tested)weapon · milspecBG2x$33.5066.99 coins<$0.010.01 coins0.00x2m

MAG-7 | Rust Coat (Factory New)weapon · Consumer Grade$33.5066.99 coins<$0.010.01 coins0.00x5m

XM1014 | Blue Spruce (Field-Tested)weapon · consumer$33.5066.99 coins<$0.010.01 coins0.00x5m

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.00%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
2 Nov, 21:39 UTC	$33.50	90.00%	16

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed#eb4b4b 0.3%covert 0.3%#EB4B4B 0.3%remarkable 0.3%#4b69ff 16.0%consumer 33.0%industrial 17.0%Consumer Grade 8.0%Common 8.0%milspec 8.0%blue 9.0%best hit $3,485 (104.0x)