10% Fortune

A case on Chicken.gg (official), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Chicken.gg's own item price converted from Chicken coins at the rate on the site page.

Price

$26.94

53.88 coins

Advertised RTP

89.99%

EV $24.24 from 10 items

Observed RTP, 30d

86.52%

3,348 openings, odds method

Variance

21.7×

of price², per opening

Tail share

1 in 80

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

90.0%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

167 openings · below min

7 days

84.58%±17.472,732 openings

30 days

86.52%±15.783,348 openings

since tracking started

86.52%±15.783,348 openings

8.0%79.3%150.5%

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	167	79.24%±70.7	—	odds
7d	2,732	84.58%±17.5	−0.6σ	odds
30d	3,348	86.52%±15.8	−0.4σ	odds
All	3,348	86.52%±15.8	−0.4σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values10 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 3,348 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
★ M9 Bayonet \| Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 2)knife · covert · Phase 2	1 in 400	$1,197 2,393 coins	12.3%	11	8.4	1.31×
★ StatTrak™ Survival Knife \| Crimson Web (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · Covert	1 in 400	$1,129 2,258 coins	11.6%	11	8.4	1.31×
★ StatTrak™ M9 Bayonet \| Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 2)StatTrak · knife · covert · Phase 2	1 in 400	$1,119 2,238 coins	11.5%	6	8.4	0.72×
★ Bowie Knife \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald)knife · covert · Emerald	1 in 400	$1,022 2,043 coins	10.5%	5	8.4	0.60×
★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald)StatTrak · knife · covert · Emerald	1 in 400	$1,012 2,023 coins	10.4%	9	8.4	1.08×
AK-47 \| Jaguar (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 40	$127 253 coins	13.1%	83	83.7	0.99×
★ Gut Knife \| Tiger Tooth (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 44	$120 240 coins	11.1%	59	75.3	0.78×
★ Shadow Daggers \| Tiger Tooth (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 50	$117 235 coins	9.7%	58	67.0	0.87×
★ StatTrak™ Navaja Knife \| Tiger Tooth (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covert	1 in 50	$117 234 coins	9.6%	61	67.0	0.91×
P2000 \| Gnarled (Field-Tested)weapon · #4b69ff	90.0%	<$0.01 0.01 coins	0.0%	3,045	3013.2	1.01×

Values are Chicken.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from chicken:cases/get-cases, 11 Nov, 08:05 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

★ M9 Bayonet | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 2)knife · covert · Phase 2$26.9453.88 coins$1,1972,393 coins44.42x2d

★ M9 Bayonet | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 2)knife · covert · Phase 2$26.9453.88 coins$1,1972,393 coins44.42x5d

★ M9 Bayonet | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 2)knife · covert · Phase 2$26.9453.88 coins$1,1972,393 coins44.42x6d

★ M9 Bayonet | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 2)knife · covert · Phase 2$26.9453.88 coins$1,1972,393 coins44.42x7d

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

P2000 | Gnarled (Field-Tested)weapon · #4b69ff$26.9453.88 coins<$0.010.01 coins0.00x11h

★ Shadow Daggers | Tiger Tooth (Factory New)knife · covert$26.9453.88 coins$117235 coins4.35x11h

P2000 | Gnarled (Field-Tested)weapon · #4b69ff$26.9453.88 coins<$0.010.01 coins0.00x11h

★ Shadow Daggers | Tiger Tooth (Factory New)knife · covert$26.9453.88 coins$117235 coins4.35x11h

P2000 | Gnarled (Field-Tested)weapon · #4b69ff$26.9453.88 coins<$0.010.01 coins0.00x11h

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 89.99%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
2 Nov, 21:39 UTC	$26.94	89.99%	10

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedcovert 9.8%Covert 0.3%#4b69ff 90.0%best hit $1,197 (44.42x)