10% Sticker

A case on Chicken.gg (official), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Chicken.gg's own item price converted from Chicken coins at the rate on the site page.

Price

$264.93

530 coins

Advertised RTP

90.00%

EV $238.43 from 16 items

Observed RTP, 30d

88.00%

1,126 openings, odds method

Variance

9.5×

of price², per opening

Tail share

1 in 29

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

90.0%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

78.96%±50.33144 openings

7 days

88.63%±18.061,118 openings

30 days

88.00%±18.001,126 openings

since tracking started

88.00%±18.001,126 openings

28.0%79.0%130.0%

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	144	78.96%±50.3	−0.4σ	odds
7d	1,118	88.63%±18.1	−0.1σ	odds
30d	1,126	88.00%±18.0	−0.2σ	odds
All	1,126	88.00%±18.0	−0.2σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values16 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 1,142 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
Sticker \| Clan-Mystik (Holo) \| Katowice 2014sticker · legendary	1 in 1,000	$6,774 13,548 coins	2.8%	0	1.1	0.00×
Sticker \| LGB eSports (Holo) \| Katowice 2014sticker · remarkable	1 in 500	$6,328 12,655 coins	5.3%	2	2.3	0.88×
Sticker \| captainMo (Gold) \| Boston 2018sticker · extraordinary	1 in 333	$5,513 11,026 coins	6.9%	1	3.4	0.29×
Sticker \| HEN1 (Gold) \| Boston 2018sticker · extraordinary	1 in 250	$4,137 8,274 coins	6.9%	5	4.6	1.09×
Sticker \| keshandr (Gold) \| Krakow 2017sticker · #EB4B4B	1 in 200	$3,915 7,830 coins	8.2%	5	5.7	0.88×
Sticker \| Reason Gaming \| Katowice 2014sticker · high	1 in 200	$3,097 6,194 coins	6.5%	5	5.7	0.88×
Sticker \| keev (Gold) \| Krakow 2017sticker	1 in 200	$2,948 5,895 coins	6.2%	6	5.7	1.05×
Sticker \| iBUYPOWER \| Katowice 2014sticker · high	1 in 200	$2,919 5,838 coins	6.1%	8	5.7	1.40×
Sticker \| Titan \| Katowice 2014sticker · high	1 in 200	$2,877 5,754 coins	6.0%	6	5.7	1.05×
Sticker \| s1mple (Gold) \| Boston 2018sticker · Extraordinary	1 in 133	$2,401 4,803 coins	7.6%	8	8.6	0.93×
Sticker \| Happy (Gold) \| Boston 2018sticker	1 in 133	$2,121 4,242 coins	6.7%	9	8.6	1.05×
Sticker \| compLexity Gaming (Holo) \| Katowice 2014sticker · remarkable	1 in 80	$1,723 3,447 coins	9.0%	16	14.3	1.12×
Sticker \| LEGIJA (Gold) \| Krakow 2017sticker	1 in 80	$1,473 2,947 coins	7.7%	20	14.3	1.40×
Sticker \| JW (Gold) \| Krakow 2017sticker · extraordinary	1 in 80	$1,410 2,820 coins	7.4%	13	14.3	0.91×
Sticker \| mir (Gold) \| Krakow 2017sticker · extraordinary	1 in 80	$1,250 2,500 coins	6.6%	15	14.3	1.05×
P2000 \| Gnarled (Field-Tested)weapon · #4b69ff	90.0%	<$0.01 0.01 coins	0.0%	1,023	1027.8	1.00×

Values are Chicken.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from chicken:cases/get-cases, 11 Nov, 08:05 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

Sticker | LGB eSports (Holo) | Katowice 2014sticker · remarkable$265530 coins$6,32812,655 coins23.88x2h

Sticker | LGB eSports (Holo) | Katowice 2014sticker · remarkable$265530 coins$6,32812,655 coins23.88x2d

Sticker | captainMo (Gold) | Boston 2018sticker · extraordinary$265530 coins$5,51311,026 coins20.81x4d

Sticker | HEN1 (Gold) | Boston 2018sticker · extraordinary$265530 coins$4,1378,274 coins15.62x3d

Sticker | HEN1 (Gold) | Boston 2018sticker · extraordinarypooop$265530 coins$4,1378,274 coins15.62x4d

Sticker | HEN1 (Gold) | Boston 2018sticker · extraordinarydjpeeh$265530 coins$4,1378,274 coins15.62x5d

Sticker | HEN1 (Gold) | Boston 2018sticker · extraordinary$265530 coins$4,1378,274 coins15.62x6d

Sticker | keshandr (Gold) | Krakow 2017sticker · #EB4B4B$265530 coins$3,9157,830 coins14.78x2h

Sticker | keshandr (Gold) | Krakow 2017sticker · #EB4B4BPetitrequin00$265530 coins$3,9157,830 coins14.78x2d

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

P2000 | Gnarled (Field-Tested)weapon · #4b69ff$265530 coins<$0.010.01 coins0.00x1m

P2000 | Gnarled (Field-Tested)weapon · #4b69ffMoon1025$265530 coins<$0.010.01 coins0.00x1m

P2000 | Gnarled (Field-Tested)weapon · #4b69ff$265530 coins<$0.010.01 coins0.00x1m

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.00%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
2 Nov, 21:39 UTC	$265	90.00%	16

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedlegendary 0.1%remarkable 1.5%extraordinary 3.2%#EB4B4B 0.5%high 1.5%other 2.5%Extraordinary 0.8%#4b69ff 90.0%best hit $6,328 (23.88x)