100x Or Bust
A case on Chicken.gg (official), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Chicken.gg's own item price converted from Chicken coins at the rate on the site page.
Price
$0.52
1.03 coins
Advertised RTP
89.84%
EV $0.46 from 8 items
Observed RTP, 30d
72.82%
18.4K openings, odds method
Variance
83.8×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 118
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
98.3%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Outside band, 30 days. Advertised 89.84% sits outside the 95% band of the observed openings (59.59% – 86.06%, 18,376 openings, 30 days). The band comes from the site's own odds and values; the figure is a fact about these openings, not a verdict on the case.
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values8 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 18.4K openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Souvenir SSG 08 | Death Strike (Well-Worn)Souvenir · weapon · classified | 1 in 118 | $51.37 103 coins | 94.4% | 125 | 156.2 | 0.80× |
| SSG 08 | Fever Dream (Factory New)weapon · restricted | 1 in 118 | $1.04 2.07 coins | 1.9% | 145 | 156.2 | 0.93× |
| G3SG1 | Polar Camo (Field-Tested)weapon · consumer | 16.5% | $0.03 0.06 coins | 1.1% | 3,083 | 3032.0 | 1.02× |
| SSG 08 | Mainframe 001 (Field-Tested)weapon · milspec | 16.5% | $0.03 0.05 coins | 0.9% | 3,119 | 3032.0 | 1.03× |
| G3SG1 | Hunter (Field-Tested)weapon · blue | 16.5% | $0.02 0.04 coins | 0.7% | 2,977 | 3032.0 | 0.98× |
| SCAR-20 | Contractor (Field-Tested)weapon · consumer | 16.5% | $0.01 0.03 coins | 0.5% | 3,149 | 3032.0 | 1.04× |
| SCAR-20 | Contractor (Factory New)weapon · consumer | 16.5% | $0.01 0.02 coins | 0.4% | 2,948 | 3032.0 | 0.97× |
| G3SG1 | VariCamo (Field-Tested)weapon · industrial | 15.8% | <$0.01 0.01 coins | 0.2% | 2,830 | 2903.4 | 0.97× |
Values are Chicken.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
chicken:cases/get-cases, 11 Nov, 14:05 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
Souvenir SSG 08 | Death Strike (Well-Worn)Souvenir · weapon · classified$0.521.03 coins$51.37103 coins99.74x
Souvenir SSG 08 | Death Strike (Well-Worn)Souvenir · weapon · classified$0.521.03 coins$51.37103 coins99.74x
Souvenir SSG 08 | Death Strike (Well-Worn)Souvenir · weapon · classified$0.521.03 coins$51.37103 coins99.74x
Souvenir SSG 08 | Death Strike (Well-Worn)Souvenir · weapon · classified$0.521.03 coins$51.37103 coins99.74x
Souvenir SSG 08 | Death Strike (Well-Worn)Souvenir · weapon · classified$0.521.03 coins$51.37103 coins99.74x
Souvenir SSG 08 | Death Strike (Well-Worn)Souvenir · weapon · classified$0.521.03 coins$51.37103 coins99.74x
Souvenir SSG 08 | Death Strike (Well-Worn)Souvenir · weapon · classified$0.521.03 coins$51.37103 coins99.74x
Souvenir SSG 08 | Death Strike (Well-Worn)Souvenir · weapon · classified$0.521.03 coins$51.37103 coins99.74x
Souvenir SSG 08 | Death Strike (Well-Worn)Souvenir · weapon · classified$0.521.03 coins$51.37103 coins99.74x
Souvenir SSG 08 | Death Strike (Well-Worn)Souvenir · weapon · classified$0.521.03 coins$51.37103 coins99.74x
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 89.84%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $0.52 | 89.84% | 8 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedclassified 0.9%restricted 0.9%consumer 49.5%milspec 16.5%blue 16.5%industrial 15.8%best hit $51.37 (99.74x)