1.3 Asiimov
A case on Chicken.gg (official), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Chicken.gg's own item price converted from Chicken coins at the rate on the site page.
Price
$0.65
1.3 coins
Advertised RTP
89.39%
EV $0.58 from 8 items
Observed RTP, 30d
95.45%
10.5K openings, odds method
Variance
29.2×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 54
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
73.2%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values8 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 10.5K openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AWP | Asiimov (Field-Tested)weapon · covert | 1 in 1,000 | $89.12 178 coins | 15.3% | 16 | 10.5 | 1.52× |
| SSG 08 | Sand Dune (Factory New)weapon · consumer | 1 in 400 | $25.86 51.71 coins | 11.1% | 27 | 26.2 | 1.03× |
| AWP | Neo-Noir (Field-Tested)weapon · covert | 1 in 133 | $13.86 27.72 coins | 17.9% | 88 | 78.7 | 1.12× |
| AWP | Chromatic Aberration (Factory New)weapon · covert | 1 in 133 | $13.85 27.7 coins | 17.9% | 62 | 78.7 | 0.79× |
| SSG 08 | Hand Brake (Factory New)weapon · Rare | 24.9% | $0.84 1.68 coins | 36.1% | 2,623 | 2618.8 | 1.00× |
| SSG 08 | Mainframe 001 (Field-Tested)weapon · milspec | 25.0% | $0.03 0.05 coins | 1.1% | 2,664 | 2624.0 | 1.02× |
| R8 Revolver | Bone Forged (Field-Tested)weapon · blue | 25.0% | $0.01 0.02 coins | 0.4% | 2,649 | 2624.0 | 1.01× |
| P250 | Sand Dune (Well-Worn)weapon · consumer | 23.2% | <$0.01 0.01 coins | 0.2% | 2,367 | 2435.1 | 0.97× |
Values are Chicken.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
chicken:cases/get-cases, 11 Nov, 20:05 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 89.39%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $0.65 | 89.39% | 8 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert 1.6%consumer 23.5%Rare 24.9%milspec 25.0%blue 25.0%best hit $89.12 (137.1x)