13 to 0
A case on Chicken.gg (official), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Chicken.gg's own item price converted from Chicken coins at the rate on the site page.
Price
$57.53
115 coins
Advertised RTP
90.00%
EV $51.77 from 8 items
Observed RTP, 30d
105.05%
38 openings, odds method
Variance
4.4×
of price², per opening
Tail share
13.0%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
87.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Small sample. 38 openings and 4.9 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values8 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 38 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ★ Ursus Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 1)knife · gold · Phase 1 | 13.0% | $362 723 coins | 90.8% | 6 | 4.9 | 1.21× |
| M4A4 | Zirka (Factory New)weapon · restricted | 13.0% | $26.68 53.36 coins | 6.7% | 3 | 4.9 | 0.61× |
| MP9 | Setting Sun (Field-Tested)weapon · mil spec | 13.0% | $3.21 6.41 coins | 0.8% | 5 | 4.9 | 1.01× |
| R8 Revolver | Canal Spray (Factory New)weapon · consumer | 13.0% | $2.71 5.41 coins | 0.7% | 2 | 4.9 | 0.40× |
| P250 | Contamination (Factory New)weapon · industrial | 13.0% | $1.61 3.21 coins | 0.4% | 7 | 4.9 | 1.42× |
| MAC-10 | Urban DDPAT (Field-Tested)weapon · consumer | 13.0% | $1.27 2.53 coins | 0.3% | 6 | 4.9 | 1.21× |
| MAC-10 | Button Masher (Factory New)weapon · #8847ff | 13.0% | $0.77 1.53 coins | 0.2% | 6 | 4.9 | 1.21× |
| UMP-45 | Full Stop (Field-Tested)weapon · blue | 1 in 11 | $0.50 1 coins | 0.1% | 3 | 3.4 | 0.88× |
Values are Chicken.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
chicken:cases/get-cases, 11 Nov, 14:05 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
★ Ursus Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 1)knife · gold · Phase 1$57.53115 coins$362723 coins6.29x
★ Ursus Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 1)knife · gold · Phase 1kvaki$57.53115 coins$362723 coins6.29x
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.00%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $57.53 | 90.00% | 8 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedgold 13.0%restricted 13.0%mil spec 13.0%consumer 26.0%industrial 13.0%#8847ff 13.0%blue 9.0%best hit —