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15% Baller

A case on Chicken.gg (official), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Chicken.gg's own item price converted from Chicken coins at the rate on the site page.

Price
$1,444.40
2,889 coins
Advertised RTP
90.00%
EV $1,299.96 from 16 items
Observed RTP, 30d
60.90%
262 openings, odds method
Variance
9.2×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 33
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
85.0%
of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
24 hours
20 openings · below min
7 days
60.90%±36.64262 openings
30 days
60.90%±36.64262 openings
since tracking started
60.90%±36.64262 openings
-0.5%119.8%240.0%

Windowsthe test per window

WindowOpeningsObservedDev.Method
24h20106.54%±132.6—odds
7d26260.90%±36.6−1.6σodds
30d26260.90%±36.6−1.6σodds
All26260.90%±36.6−1.6σodds
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values16 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 262 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
ItemOddsValueEV shareObservedExpectedHot / cold
Sticker | Team LDLC.com (Holo) | Katowice 2014sticker · remarkable1 in 100$25.5K 51,019 coins19.6%12.60.38×
Souvenir AWP | Dragon Lore (Battle-Scarred)Souvenir · weapon · covert1 in 100$24.8K 49,625 coins19.1%22.60.76×
★ Sport Gloves | Hedge Maze (Factory New)gloves · extraordinary1 in 100$18.7K 37,392 coins14.4%12.60.38×
★ Sport Gloves | Vice (Factory New)gloves · extraordinary1 in 100$15.1K 30,112 coins11.6%02.60.00×
★ M9 Bayonet | Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby)knife · covert · Ruby1 in 100$8,079 16,159 coins6.2%42.61.53×
Souvenir AK-47 | Gold Arabesque (Factory New)Souvenir · weapon · covert1 in 100$6,181 12,362 coins4.8%32.61.15×
★ StatTrak™ M9 Bayonet | Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl)StatTrak · knife · Knives · Black Pearl1 in 100$5,893 11,786 coins4.5%32.61.15×
★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl)StatTrak · knife · covert · Black Pearl1 in 100$5,754 11,508 coins4.4%22.60.76×
★ Butterfly Knife | Crimson Web (Factory New)knife · knifes1 in 100$4,425 8,850 coins3.4%32.61.15×
Sticker | kNgV- (Gold) | Boston 2018sticker · extraordinary1 in 100$4,260 8,520 coins3.3%12.60.38×
★ StatTrak™ Talon Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby)StatTrak · knife · covert · Ruby1 in 100$3,326 6,652 coins2.6%32.61.15×
★ Stiletto Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby)knife · covert · Ruby1 in 100$2,468 4,935 coins1.9%62.62.29×
★ Butterfly Knife | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 2)knife · covert · Phase 21 in 100$2,340 4,679 coins1.8%22.60.76×
Souvenir AWP | Desert Hydra (Minimal Wear)Souvenir · weapon · covert1 in 100$1,661 3,323 coins1.3%32.61.15×
★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife | Marble Fade (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · legendary1 in 100$1,493 2,987 coins1.1%32.61.15×
P250 | Nevermore (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted85.0%$0.49 0.98 coins0.0%225222.71.01×
Values are Chicken.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from chicken:cases/get-cases, 11 Nov, 08:05 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

Sticker | Team LDLC.com (Holo) | Katowice 2014sticker · remarkable$1,4442,889 coins$25.5K51,019 coins17.66x
Souvenir AWP | Dragon Lore (Battle-Scarred)Souvenir · weapon · covert$1,4442,889 coins$24.8K49,625 coins17.18x
Souvenir AWP | Dragon Lore (Battle-Scarred)Souvenir · weapon · covert$1,4442,889 coins$24.8K49,625 coins17.18x
★ Sport Gloves | Hedge Maze (Factory New)gloves · extraordinary$1,4442,889 coins$18.7K37,392 coins12.94x
★ M9 Bayonet | Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby)knife · covert · Ruby$1,4442,889 coins$8,07916,159 coins5.59x
★ M9 Bayonet | Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby)knife · covert · RubyLer1$1,4442,889 coins$8,07916,159 coins5.59x
★ M9 Bayonet | Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby)knife · covert · Ruby$1,4442,889 coins$8,07916,159 coins5.59x
★ M9 Bayonet | Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby)knife · covert · Ruby$1,4442,889 coins$8,07916,159 coins5.59x
Souvenir AK-47 | Gold Arabesque (Factory New)Souvenir · weapon · covert$1,4442,889 coins$6,18112,362 coins4.28x
Souvenir AK-47 | Gold Arabesque (Factory New)Souvenir · weapon · covert$1,4442,889 coins$6,18112,362 coins4.28x

Latest dropsnewest first

All Latest drops →
P250 | Nevermore (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted$1,4442,889 coins$0.490.98 coins0.00x
P250 | Nevermore (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted$1,4442,889 coins$0.490.98 coins0.00x
P250 | Nevermore (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted$1,4442,889 coins$0.490.98 coins0.00x
★ StatTrak™ M9 Bayonet | Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl)StatTrak · knife · Knives · Black Pearl$1,4442,889 coins$5,89311,786 coins4.08x
P250 | Nevermore (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted$1,4442,889 coins$0.490.98 coins0.00x
P250 | Nevermore (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted$1,4442,889 coins$0.490.98 coins0.00x
P250 | Nevermore (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted$1,4442,889 coins$0.490.98 coins0.00x
P250 | Nevermore (Minimal Wear)weapon · restrictedMoon1025$1,4442,889 coins$0.490.98 coins0.00x
★ Sport Gloves | Hedge Maze (Factory New)gloves · extraordinary$1,4442,889 coins$18.7K37,392 coins12.94x
Souvenir AK-47 | Gold Arabesque (Factory New)Souvenir · weapon · covert$1,4442,889 coins$6,18112,362 coins4.28x

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.00%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

CapturedPriceAdvertisedItems
2 Nov, 21:39 UTC$1,44490.00%16
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedremarkable 1.0%covert 8.0%extraordinary 3.0%Knives 1.0%knifes 1.0%legendary 1.0%restricted 85.0%best hit $25.5K (17.66x)