15% Galaxy Pistol
A case on Chicken.gg (official), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Chicken.gg's own item price converted from Chicken coins at the rate on the site page.
Price
$6.99
13.97 coins
Advertised RTP
89.96%
EV $6.28 from 16 items
Observed RTP, 30d
90.21%
4,813 openings, odds method
Variance
8.7×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 28
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
85.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values16 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 4,825 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are Chicken.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
chicken:cases/get-cases, 12 Nov, 02:06 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
StatTrak™ USP-S | Neo-Noir (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · covert$6.9913.97 coins$84.56169 coins12.11x
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 89.96%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $6.99 | 89.96% | 16 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedclassified 3.1%restricted 0.1%Restricted 0.1%Classified 0.3%mil spec 0.5%covert 2.4%Mil Spec Grade 1.2%industrial 4.2%milspec 3.1%consumer 85.0%best hit —