15% juicy HAO

A case on Chicken.gg, first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Chicken.gg's own item price converted from Chicken coins at the rate on the site page.

Price
$4.19
8.38 coins
Advertised RTP
—
no catalog
Observed RTP, 30d
136.38%
54 openings, sample method
Variance
—
needs odds
Tail share
—
needs odds
Below price
—
needs odds

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandoutside bandsmall sample
24 hours
24 openings · below min
7 days
32 openings · below min
30 days
54 openings · below min
since tracking started
54 openings · below min
63.5%177.5%291.5%

Small sample. 54 openings: below the 1,000 the sample method needs, so no verdict.

Windowsthe test per window

WindowOpeningsObservedDev.Method
24h24177.53%±113.2—sample
7d32172.09%±96.9—sample
30d54136.38%±68.7—sample
All54136.38%±68.7—sample
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and valuesnone published

No catalogChicken.gg publishes no catalog; the case is known from the drops that named it.
Values are Chicken.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.

Latest dropsnewest first

AUG | Sweeper (Factory New)weapon · Common$4.198.38 coins<$0.010.01 coins0.00x
USP-S | Neo-Noir (Factory New)weapon · covert$4.198.38 coins$25.9651.91 coins6.19x
SG 553 | Ultraviolet (Factory New)weapon · Rare$4.198.38 coins$25.1650.31 coins6.00x
AUG | Sweeper (Factory New)weapon · Common$4.198.38 coins<$0.010.01 coins0.00x
AUG | Sweeper (Factory New)weapon · Common$4.198.38 coins<$0.010.01 coins0.00x
AUG | Sweeper (Factory New)weapon · Common$4.198.38 coins<$0.010.01 coins0.00x
USP-S | Business Class (Field-Tested)weapon · mil spec$4.198.38 coins$22.3744.74 coins5.34x
AUG | Sweeper (Factory New)weapon · Common$4.198.38 coins<$0.010.01 coins0.00x
M4A4 | Modern Hunter (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted$4.198.38 coins$25.4150.82 coins6.06x

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, daily

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

CapturedPriceAdvertisedItems
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedbest hit —