15% Knife

A case on Chicken.gg (official), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Chicken.gg's own item price converted from Chicken coins at the rate on the site page.

Price

$11.36

22.72 coins

Advertised RTP

89.98%

EV $10.22 from 16 items

Observed RTP, 30d

88.26%

5,334 openings, odds method

Variance

15.2×

of price², per opening

Tail share

1 in 15

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

85.0%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

67.99%±53.81202 openings

7 days

86.97%±12.014,054 openings

30 days

88.26%±10.475,334 openings

since tracking started

88.26%±10.475,334 openings

13.5%68.0%122.5%

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	202	67.99%±53.8	−0.8σ	odds
7d	4,054	86.97%±12.0	−0.5σ	odds
30d	5,334	88.26%±10.5	−0.3σ	odds
All	5,334	88.26%±10.5	−0.3σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values16 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 5,334 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
★ StatTrak™ Huntsman Knife \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald)StatTrak · knife · covert · Emerald	1 in 5,000	$1,449 2,899 coins	2.8%	1	1.1	0.94×
★ Huntsman Knife \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald)knife · covert · Emerald	1 in 5,000	$1,429 2,858 coins	2.8%	1	1.1	0.94×
★ Bowie Knife \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald)knife · covert · Emerald	1 in 5,000	$1,022 2,043 coins	2.0%	0	1.1	0.00×
★ Bayonet \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 2)knife · covert · Phase 2	1 in 5,000	$901 1,803 coins	1.8%	1	1.1	0.94×
★ StatTrak™ Bayonet \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 2)StatTrak · knife · covert · Phase 2	1 in 5,000	$832 1,664 coins	1.6%	0	1.1	0.00×
★ Flip Knife \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 4)knife · covert · Phase 4	1 in 5,000	$549 1,098 coins	1.1%	3	1.1	2.81×
★ StatTrak™ Flip Knife \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 4)StatTrak · knife · Covert · Phase 4	1 in 5,000	$538 1,077 coins	1.1%	3	1.1	2.81×
★ StatTrak™ Falchion Knife \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 4)StatTrak · knife · covert · Phase 4	1 in 1,000	$346 693 coins	3.4%	0	5.3	0.00×
★ Navaja Knife \| Ultraviolet (Field-Tested)knife · covert	1 in 48	$61.31 123 coins	12.6%	107	112.0	0.96×
★ StatTrak™ Flip Knife \| Boreal Forest (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 48	$57.70 115 coins	11.9%	112	112.0	1.00×
★ Navaja Knife \| Boreal Forest (Field-Tested)knife · #ffd700	1 in 48	$57.67 115 coins	11.8%	110	112.0	0.98×
★ Navaja Knife \| Urban Masked (Field-Tested)knife · covert knife	1 in 48	$57.54 115 coins	11.8%	118	112.0	1.05×
★ Navaja Knife \| Night Stripe (Field-Tested)knife · Immortal	1 in 48	$56.78 114 coins	11.7%	113	112.0	1.01×
★ Navaja Knife \| Safari Mesh (Field-Tested)knife · gold	1 in 48	$56.76 114 coins	11.7%	127	112.0	1.13×
★ Navaja Knife \| Rust Coat (Battle-Scarred)knife · covert	1 in 46	$56.72 113 coins	12.0%	117	115.2	1.02×
P2000 \| Gnarled (Field-Tested)weapon · #4b69ff	85.0%	<$0.01 0.01 coins	0.0%	4,521	4533.9	1.00×

Values are Chicken.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from chicken:cases/get-cases, 11 Nov, 08:05 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

★ StatTrak™ Huntsman Knife | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald)StatTrak · knife · covert · Emerald$11.3622.72 coins$1,4492,899 coins127.6x6d

★ StatTrak™ Huntsman Knife | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald)StatTrak · knife · covert · Emerald$11.3622.72 coins$1,4492,899 coins127.6x8d

★ Huntsman Knife | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald)knife · covert · Emerald$11.3622.72 coins$1,4292,858 coins125.8x5d

★ Bayonet | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 2)knife · covert · Phase 2$11.3622.72 coins$9011,803 coins79.35x4d

★ Flip Knife | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 4)knife · covert · Phase 4fr1endzone$11.3622.72 coins$5491,098 coins48.32x5d

★ Flip Knife | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 4)knife · covert · Phase 4$11.3622.72 coins$5491,098 coins48.32x7d

★ Flip Knife | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 4)knife · covert · Phase 4justsan$11.3622.72 coins$5491,098 coins48.32x8d

★ StatTrak™ Flip Knife | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 4)StatTrak · knife · Covert · Phase 4$11.3622.72 coins$5381,077 coins47.40x6d

★ StatTrak™ Flip Knife | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 4)StatTrak · knife · Covert · Phase 4BG2x$11.3622.72 coins$5381,077 coins47.40x8d

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

P2000 | Gnarled (Field-Tested)weapon · #4b69ff$11.3622.72 coins<$0.010.01 coins0.00x3h

★ Navaja Knife | Ultraviolet (Field-Tested)knife · covert$11.3622.72 coins$61.31123 coins5.40x3h

P2000 | Gnarled (Field-Tested)weapon · #4b69ff$11.3622.72 coins<$0.010.01 coins0.00x3h

★ Navaja Knife | Safari Mesh (Field-Tested)knife · gold$11.3622.72 coins$56.76114 coins5.00x3h

P2000 | Gnarled (Field-Tested)weapon · #4b69ff$11.3622.72 coins<$0.010.01 coins0.00x3h

P2000 | Gnarled (Field-Tested)weapon · #4b69ffkruley$11.3622.72 coins<$0.010.01 coins0.00x3h

★ Navaja Knife | Night Stripe (Field-Tested)knife · Immortal$11.3622.72 coins$56.78114 coins5.00x3h

P2000 | Gnarled (Field-Tested)weapon · #4b69ff$11.3622.72 coins<$0.010.01 coins0.00x3h

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 89.98%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
2 Nov, 21:39 UTC	$11.36	89.98%	16

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedcovert 4.5%Covert 0.0%covert knife 4.2%#ffd700 2.1%Immortal 2.1%gold 2.1%#4b69ff 85.0%best hit $1,449 (127.6x)