15% Special

A case on Chicken.gg, first seen 10 Nov 2026. Every value is Chicken.gg's own item price converted from Chicken coins at the rate on the site page.

Price
$27.73
55.45 coins
Advertised RTP
—
no catalog
Observed RTP, 30d
86.20%
216 openings, sample method
Variance
—
needs odds
Tail share
—
needs odds
Below price
—
needs odds

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandoutside bandsmall sample
7 days
216 openings · below min
30 days
216 openings · below min
since tracking started
216 openings · below min
32.0%86.3%140.5%

Small sample. 216 openings: below the 1,000 the sample method needs, so no verdict.

Windowsthe test per window

WindowOpeningsObservedDev.Method
24h0———
7d21686.20%±53.7—sample
30d21686.20%±53.7—sample
All21686.20%±53.7—sample
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and valuesnone published

No catalogChicken.gg publishes no catalog; the case is known from the drops that named it.
Values are Chicken.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

★ Karambit | Marble Fade (Factory New)knife · covert$27.7355.45 coins$1,1122,225 coins40.12x
★ Karambit | Marble Fade (Factory New)knife · covert$27.7355.45 coins$1,1122,225 coins40.12x

Latest dropsnewest first

XM1014 | Blue Spruce (Field-Tested)weapon · consumer$27.7355.45 coins<$0.010.01 coins0.00x
XM1014 | Blue Spruce (Field-Tested)weapon · consumer$27.7355.45 coins<$0.010.01 coins0.00x
XM1014 | Blue Spruce (Field-Tested)weapon · consumer$27.7355.45 coins<$0.010.01 coins0.00x
XM1014 | Blue Spruce (Field-Tested)weapon · consumer$27.7355.45 coins<$0.010.01 coins0.00x
XM1014 | Blue Spruce (Field-Tested)weapon · consumer$27.7355.45 coins<$0.010.01 coins0.00x
★ Falchion Knife | Slaughter (Minimal Wear)knife · covert$27.7355.45 coins$186373 coins6.72x
XM1014 | Blue Spruce (Field-Tested)weapon · consumer$27.7355.45 coins<$0.010.01 coins0.00x

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, daily
No data in this window

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

CapturedPriceAdvertisedItems
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedbest hit $1,112 (40.12x)