2-bit
A case on Chicken.gg (official), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Chicken.gg's own item price converted from Chicken coins at the rate on the site page.
Price
$1.04
2.07 coins
Advertised RTP
90.10%
EV $0.93 from 8 items
Observed RTP, 30d
102.84%
2,457 openings, odds method
Variance
20.4×
of price², per opening
Tail share
27.2%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
97.8%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values8 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 2,457 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ★ Shadow Daggers | Stained (Factory New)knife · covert knife | 1 in 1,000 | $100 201 coins | 10.8% | 4 | 2.5 | 1.63× |
| ★ Gut Knife | Damascus Steel (Factory New)knife · covert | 1 in 1,000 | $100 201 coins | 10.8% | 5 | 2.5 | 2.04× |
| MAC-10 | Toybox (Factory New)weapon · classified | 1 in 100 | $10.02 20.04 coins | 10.7% | 22 | 24.6 | 0.90× |
| Nova | Green Apple (Factory New)weapon · industrial | 1 in 100 | $10.01 20.02 coins | 10.7% | 21 | 24.6 | 0.85× |
| Sawed-Off | Apocalypto (Factory New)weapon · restricted | 25.0% | $1.01 2.02 coins | 27.1% | 560 | 614.3 | 0.91× |
| CZ75-Auto | Pole Position (Factory New)weapon · #8847ff | 25.0% | $1.01 2.02 coins | 27.1% | 641 | 614.3 | 1.04× |
| P250 | Ripple (Field-Tested)weapon · #4b69ff | 24.0% | $0.10 0.2 coins | 2.6% | 621 | 589.7 | 1.05× |
| M249 | Gator Mesh (Field-Tested)weapon · 2 | 23.8% | $0.01 0.02 coins | 0.3% | 583 | 584.8 | 1.00× |
Values are Chicken.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
chicken:cases/get-cases, 11 Nov, 08:05 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
★ Gut Knife | Damascus Steel (Factory New)knife · covert420Skabais$1.042.07 coins$100201 coins96.93x
Latest dropsnewest first
Sawed-Off | Apocalypto (Factory New)weapon · restricted420Skabais$1.042.07 coins$1.012.02 coins0.98x
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.10%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $1.04 | 90.10% | 8 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listed2 23.8%covert knife 0.1%covert 0.1%classified 1.0%industrial 1.0%restricted 25.0%#8847ff 25.0%#4b69ff 24.0%best hit $100 (97.08x)