20% AWP Fade
A case on Chicken.gg (official), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Chicken.gg's own item price converted from Chicken coins at the rate on the site page.
Price
$245.95
492 coins
Advertised RTP
90.00%
EV $221.35 from 10 items
Observed RTP, 30d
105.60%
108 openings, odds method
Variance
1.9×
of price², per opening
Tail share
20.0%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
75.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values10 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 108 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AWP | Fade (Factory New)weapon · covert | 20.0% | $884 1,767 coins | 79.8% | 28 | 21.6 | 1.30× |
| ★ StatTrak™ Shadow Daggers | Fade (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covert | 1 in 20 | $271 542 coins | 6.1% | 3 | 5.4 | 0.56× |
| ★ Shadow Daggers | Fade (Factory New)knife · covert | 1 in 20 | $217 434 coins | 4.9% | 4 | 5.4 | 0.74× |
| ★ StatTrak™ Navaja Knife | Fade (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covert knife | 1 in 20 | $201 401 coins | 4.5% | 3 | 5.4 | 0.56× |
| Souvenir UMP-45 | Fade (Minimal Wear)Souvenir · weapon · classified | 1 in 20 | $58.26 117 coins | 1.3% | 7 | 5.4 | 1.30× |
| MAC-10 | Fade (Factory New)weapon · mil spec | 12.0% | $23.04 46.07 coins | 1.2% | 7 | 13.0 | 0.54× |
| Galil AR | Amber Fade (Factory New)weapon · Mil Spec Grade | 12.0% | $15.86 31.71 coins | 0.9% | 11 | 13.0 | 0.85× |
| R8 Revolver | Fade (Factory New)weapon · covert | 12.0% | $11.52 23.04 coins | 0.6% | 8 | 13.0 | 0.62× |
| MP7 | Fade (Factory New)weapon · restricted | 12.0% | $6.30 12.59 coins | 0.3% | 18 | 13.0 | 1.39× |
| MP7 | Fade (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted | 12.0% | $3.88 7.75 coins | 0.2% | 19 | 13.0 | 1.47× |
Values are Chicken.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
chicken:cases/get-cases, 12 Nov, 02:06 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
Latest dropsnewest first
Souvenir UMP-45 | Fade (Minimal Wear)Souvenir · weapon · classified$246492 coins$58.26117 coins0.24x
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.00%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $246 | 90.00% | 10 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert 42.0%covert knife 5.0%classified 5.0%mil spec 12.0%Mil Spec Grade 12.0%restricted 24.0%best hit $884 (3.59x)