200x Or Bust
A case on Chicken.gg (official), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Chicken.gg's own item price converted from Chicken coins at the rate on the site page.
Price
$0.52
1.04 coins
Advertised RTP
89.53%
EV $0.47 from 2 items
Observed RTP, 30d
97.61%
13K openings, odds method
Variance
162.6×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 208
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
99.5%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values2 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 13K openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| M4A4 | Temukau (Factory New)weapon · covert | 1 in 208 | $95.96 192 coins | 98.9% | 68 | 62.3 | 1.09× |
| P2000 | Gnarled (Field-Tested)weapon · #4b69ff | 99.5% | <$0.01 0.01 coins | 1.1% | 12,917 | 12922.7 | 1.00× |
Values are Chicken.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
chicken:cases/get-cases, 11 Nov, 14:05 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 89.53%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $0.52 | 89.53% | 2 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert 0.5%#4b69ff 99.5%best hit $95.96 (184.5x)