25% Blaze

A case on Chicken.gg (official), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Chicken.gg's own item price converted from Chicken coins at the rate on the site page.

Price

$201.28

403 coins

Advertised RTP

90.00%

EV $181.15 from 4 items

Observed RTP, 30d

90.69%

16 openings, odds method

Variance

0.8×

of price², per opening

Tail share

25.0%

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

75.0%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

7 days

16 openings · below min

30 days

16 openings · below min

since tracking started

16 openings · below min

46.0%90.8%135.5%

Small sample. 16 openings and 4.0 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	0	—	—	—
7d	16	90.69%±44.2	—	odds
30d	16	90.69%±44.2	—	odds
All	16	90.69%±44.2	—	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values4 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 16 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
Desert Eagle \| Blaze (Factory New)weapon · rare	25.0%	$462 923 coins	63.7%	5	4.0	1.25×
Souvenir Desert Eagle \| Fennec Fox (Minimal Wear)Souvenir · weapon · Classified	33.0%	$195 389 coins	35.5%	3	5.3	0.57×
Desert Eagle \| Crimson Web (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted	21.0%	$4.58 9.15 coins	0.5%	4	3.4	1.19×
Desert Eagle \| Light Rail (Factory New)weapon · restricted	21.0%	$2.69 5.38 coins	0.3%	4	3.4	1.19×

Values are Chicken.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from chicken:cases/get-cases, 11 Nov, 14:05 UTC.